Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Stocks Set To Rise Ahead of Fed

*DISCLOSURES: Scott Redler is flat

There are mixed and subdued markets around the world as Europe hugs the flat line EU bond yields rise in Italy and Spain (we haven't heard that in a while). The ECB is also is in focus as some think they could go to negative interest rates. Asia is mixed as Japan was off small as it waits on the BOJ and the Shanghai bounces back 0.84%.

Today we get Fed minutes, which sometimes move markets, especially after Plosser's remarks yesterday that some believe ignited the weakness mid-day. I'm not so sure it was his statements that made the difference, all I know is that frustration is running high and there is a distinct difference between the action in each market. Some think the erratic, random, thin action could lead to a big decline in the S&P and Dow.

Some think that the correction we saw in many growth stocks and sectors "was the correction" and the broader indices held up just fine. I am trying to take it day by day as buying after a multi-day move has been stressful except for "unique" situations. But if you try and press shorts after an initial move (especially SPY, DIA) you probably didn't do so well either.

Today S&P futures are up 3-4 handles. We are still above important intermediate support of 1862-1865ish. As long as we stay above this, you can't be super short this index. Resistance stands at 1885-1890 then 1902. I am on my toes and very flexible.

The Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) is trying to act better, as we've had a few better set ups recently.  There is some support at $87.30 but more important support here is $86.50ish. Resistance stands at $88.60.

The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) turned back lower after a move off last week's lows. The 21-day has been big resistance here for the past few weeks where it got rejected again. Big support is $107.44-108.42.

High beta tech hangs a bit tougher.

Netflix (NFLX) was able to eke out another 2% gain after the clean breakout on Monday as it was listed on our Off The Charts newsletter on Sunday night with an entry at $350. The stock went as high as $372.70 and closed on highs, showing some commitment. It's hard to buy after a three-day rally but it's nice to see this high beta waking up again. Some digestion above the two-day support of $362 could keep its momentum intact for a further short squeeze.

Apple (AAPL) held above the breakout level of $597.50 as it put in a pivot low at $600.73 and stayed above this level most of yesterday's session. Use yesterday's low as the new point of reference to trade against as holding above this could lead to a potential breakout above $607.

Google (GOOG) had a nice two-day rally to retest the short-term resistance of $536. It did close well off of highs but found support at Monday's intra-day level of $526. Holding above the 2-day support of $526 would keep it in the game for a break above this pivot resistance.

Amazon (AMZN) took its turn to lead this group up as the stock showed relative strength in the morning to get a nice rally up to retest its 21-day EMA at $305. It still has a lot to prove but holding above the recent pivot low of $290 would keep it in the game. The pivot action area was $299 from yesterday's note.

Tesla (TSLA) has been inching up since dip buyers stepped in at the 200-day EMA two weeks ago. There's been a few trades along the way. The stock has regained the support of its 8-day EMA. I do think it's vulnerable. A break below $190 could put pressure back on.

Facebook (FB) tried to build on Monday's Day #1 but failed yesterday. It couldn't hold $59.56 (RDR pivot) and then got pressured. Perhaps a trade below $58.18 and some that are trying to be short this could have some success. This range is getting frustrating.

There's been some action in biotech stocks.

The Biotech ETF (IBB) continued to build a tight mid-level range above its 200-day EMA. The longer it stays above $225, the higher the probability it could see a break above the weekly resistance of $233.80.

Biogen (BIIB) has been hovering around its 8- and 21-day EMA to build a tight range. A break above $294 on good volume could set it back in motion. I'd keep stops in at $285.

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