Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Top 10 Safest Companies To Invest In Right Now

On the face of it, figuring out how a bank makes money is a pretty straightforward affair. A bank earns a spread on the money it lends out from the money it takes in as a deposit. The net interest margin (NIM), which most banks report quarterly, represents this spread, which is simply the difference between what it earns on loans versus what it pays out as interest on deposits. This, of course, gets much more complicated given the dizzying array of credit products and interest rates used to determine the rate eventually charged for loans. Below is an overview of how a bank determines the interest rate for consumers and business loans.

It All Starts with Interest Rate Policy
Banks are generally free to determine the interest rate they will pay for deposits and charge for loans, but they must take the competition into account, as well as the market levels for numerous interest rates and Fed policies. The United States Federal Reserve influences interest rates by setting certain rates, stipulating bank reserve requirements, and buying and selling ��isk-free��(a term used to indicate that these are among the safest bonds in existence) U.S. Treasury and agency securities to impact the deposits that banks hold at the Fed. This is referred to as monetary policy and is intended to influence economic activity as well as the health and safety of the overall banking system. Most market-based countries employ a similar type of monetary policy in their economies.

Top 10 Safest Companies To Invest In Right Now: Fluor Corporation(FLR)

Fluor Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, maintenance, and project management services worldwide. Its Oil & Gas segment offers design, engineering, procurement, construction, and project management services to upstream oil and gas production, downstream refining, chemicals, and petrochemicals industries. This segment also provides consulting services comprising feasibility studies, process assessment, and project finance structuring and studies. The company?s Industrial & Infrastructure segment offers design, engineering, procurement, and construction services to the transportation, wind power, mining and metals, life sciences, manufacturing, commercial and institutional, telecommunications, microelectronics, and healthcare sectors. Its Government segment provides engineering, construction, logistics support, contingency response, management, and operations services to the United States government focusing on the Departme nt of Energy, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Defense. The company?s Global Services segment offers operations and maintenance, small capital project engineering and execution, site equipment and tool services, industrial fleet services, plant turnaround services, temporary staffing services, and supply chain solutions. Its Power segment provides engineering, procurement, construction, program management, start-up and commissioning, and operations and maintenance services to the gas fueled, solid fueled, plant betterment, renewables, nuclear, and power services markets. The company also offers unionized management and construction services in the United States and Canada. Fluor Corporation was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Louis Navellier]

    If we look at the sector using Portfolio Grader, we see that many of the big names in the group like Flour (FLR), Granite Construction (GVA) and KBR incorporated (KBR) are rated ��ell.��The anticipated spending for both government and private industry simply hasn�� materialized, and the companies are not seeing revenue or profit growth.

  • [By CRWE]

    Fluor Corporation�� (NYSE:FLR) Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Seaton, and Chief Financial Officer, Biggs Porter, will give a presentation to investors at the Credit Suisse 2012 Engineering & Construction Conference in New York on Thursday, June 7 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

  • [By The Energy Report]

    JH: One of the areas where the U.S. for decades has been the leading technological power is in small nuclear reactors. We've used them on our aircraft carriers and on our nuclear submarines safely and efficiently. The U.S. has an advantage in understanding small modular nuclear reactors. One of the companies that we have followed for a long time that's working on that is Babcock & Wilcox Co. (BWC). There's also Fluor Corp. (FLR), which is working on small modular nuclear reactors. President Obama and the Department of Energy are funding research on the implementation of small modular nuclear reactors.

Top 10 Safest Companies To Invest In Right Now: Under Armour Inc.(UA)

Under Armour, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes performance apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and youth primarily in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers products made from moisture-wicking synthetic fabrics designed to regulate body temperature and enhance performance regardless of weather conditions. The company provides its products in three fit types: compression (tight fitting), fitted (athletic cut), and loose (relaxed) extending across the sporting goods, outdoor, and active lifestyle markets. Its footwear offerings comprise football, baseball, lacrosse, softball, and soccer cleats; slides; performance training footwear; and running footwear. The company also provides baseball batting, football, golf, and running gloves, as well as licenses bags, socks, headwear, custom-molded mouth guards, and eyewear that are designed to be used and worn before, during, and after competition. Under Armour sells its products through retai l stores, as well as directly to consumers through its own retail outlets and specialty stores, Website, and catalogs. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Monica Gerson]

    Under Armour (NYSE: UA) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.66 per share on revenue of $710.18 million.

    Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co (NYSE: RS) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $1.20 per share on revenue of $2.54 billion.

  • [By Steve Symington]

    If you ever wondered how long�Under Armour� (NYSE: UA  ) would be able to maintain its current torrid pace of growth, the company's founding CEO Kevin Plank wants you to know they're only just getting started.

  • [By Steve Symington]

    5. Under Armour (NYSE: UA  )
    Lastly, I'm offering Under Armour as my final "better than Berkshire" stock. And yes, I'm aware comparing this tiny $6 billion performance apparel company to the diversified behemoth that is Berkshire may seem odd.

10 Best Bank Stocks To Watch Right Now: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras(PBR)

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. primarily engages in oil and natural gas exploration and production, refining, trade, and transportation businesses. The company?s Exploration and Production segment involves in the exploration, production, development, and production of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas in Brazil. This segment supplies its products to the refineries in Brazil, as well as sells surplus petroleum and byproducts in domestic and foreign markets. Its Supply segment engages in the refining, logistics, transportation, and trade of oil and oil products; export of ethanol; and extraction and processing of schist, as well as holds interests in companies of the petrochemical sector in Brazil. The Gas and Energy segment involves in the transportation and trade of natural gas produced in or imported into Brazil; transportation and trade of LNG; and generation and trade of electric power. In addition, the segment has interests in natural gas transportation and d istribution companies; and thermoelectric power stations in Brazil, as well engages in fertilizer business. The Distribution segment distributes oil products, ethanol, and compressed natural gas in Brazil. The International segment involves in the exploration and production of oil and gas, as well as in supplying, gas and energy, and distribution operations in the Americas, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Further, the company involves in biofuel production business. Petroleo Brasileiro was founded in 1953 and is based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By David Smith]

    Also, as with its competitors, Halliburton registered meaningful achievements during the quarter, including the above-mentioned new contracts with Petrobras (NYSE: PBR  ) in Brazil. Those four-year contracts can be expanded for a second equal term, and potentially could result in more than $2.0 billion in revenue for Halliburton. In addition, the company will provide multilateral technology for a pair of mature Statoil (NYSE: STO  ) fields in Norway. That work is based upon a three-year contract, with a pair of possible two-year extensions.

  • [By Robert Rapier]

    The biggest thing working against Statoil is that two-thirds of the shares are owned by the Norwegian government. This differs from Eni (~30 percent government-owned) and Total (less than 10 percent government-owned). Statoil’s ownership situation is similar to that of Petrobras (NYSE: PBR). And Petrobras shareholders have learned the hard way what can happen when the government is forced to choose between voters who are unhappy with high fuel prices and the interests of the company. Petrobras was forced to sell fuel at a loss, which was great for Brazil’s citizens but not so good for Petrobras shareholders.

Top 10 Safest Companies To Invest In Right Now: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(The)

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides investment banking, securities, and investment management services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net-worth individuals worldwide. Its Investment Banking segment offers financial advisory, including advisory assignments with respect to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense, risk management, restructurings, and spin-offs; and underwriting securities, loans and other financial instruments, and derivative transactions. The company?s Institutional Client Services segment provides client execution activities, such as fixed income, currency, and commodities client execution related to making markets in interest rate products, credit products, mortgages, currencies, and commodities; and equities related to making markets in equity products, as well as commissions and fees from executing and clearing institutional client transactions on stock, options, and fu tures exchanges. This segment also engages in the securities services business providing financing, securities lending, and other prime brokerage services to institutional clients, including hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, and foundations. Its Investing and Lending segment invests in debt securities, loans, public and private equity securities, real estate, consolidated investment entities, and power generation facilities. This segment also involves in the origination of loans to provide financing to clients. The company?s Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment products to institutional and individual clients. This segment also offers wealth advisory services, including portfolio management and financial counseling, and brokerage and other transaction services to high-net-worth individuals and families. In addition, it provides global investment research services. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Wise Ways to Make Family Gifts

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We’re entering the traditional gift-giving season. The tax rules still are important. Too many people believe that with the estate tax exemption set at $5 million per person, they don’t need to worry about shrewd, tax-wise ways to give wealth. (The exemption is indexed for inflation; it is $5.25 million in 2013.) They couldn’t be more wrong.

Of course, Congress always can change the law, and your wealth could grow faster than expected and create a taxable estate. More importantly, paying attention to the income tax effects of gifts is critical. Giving the wrong way can cost your family a bundle in unnecessary taxes. Here’s another point to keep in mind. Even when your gifts aren’t taxable, you still are responsible for filing a gift tax return in many cases.

Following the best giving strategies is important whether you’re in a position to give away $5 million or an amount with substantially fewer zeroes.

The basics. Your lifetime gift tax exemption is the same amount as your lifetime estate tax exemption, $5 million indexed for inflation or $5.25 million in 2013. But each dollar of the lifetime gift tax exemption that you use reduces your estate tax exemption.

Not all gifts are potentially taxable or use the lifetime exemption. The most important exemption for many people is the annual gift tax exclusion. This also is indexed for inflation. In 2013 you can give up to $14,000 of cash or property per recipient and not have it count toward the lifetime exemption. A married couple can give up to $28,000 in joint gifts in 2013. You have a separate annual exemption for each person to whom you give. A married couple with three children can jointly give each of the kids $28,000 in 2013, or a total of $84,000, tax free and without reducing their lifetime exemptions. This exclusion starts fresh each year, though you can’t carry forward unused amounts from previous years.

There also are opportunities to give unlimited tax-free gifts when you help someone with medical and education expenses. To qualify, you must pay the provider of the services directly. The medical expenses must meet the definition of deductible medical expenses. Qualified education expenses are tuition, books, fees, and related expenses but not room and board. You can find the detailed qualifications in IRS Publications 950 and the instructions to Form 709, all available free at www.irs.gov

Gifts that exceed the annual exclusion amount to a person begin to reduce the lifetime exemption. Only after the lifetime exemption is exhausted are gifts taxable.

Give early. The traditional gift-giving season is around the end of the year. That’s partly because it is the holiday season and partly because it is the end of the calendar year and people are wrapping up their finances for the year.

I’m not discouraging you from making year-end gifts this year, but consider doing next year’s giving earlier in the year. One advantage of early gifts is that any of the appreciation for the year is out of your estate. Also, by giving assets before they appreciate for the year, you are increasing the amount of property and future wealth you give tax-free. Suppose a mutual fund is priced at $20 per share on Jan. 15 and $25 on Dec. 31. With a $14,000 annual gift tax exclusion you can give a loved one 700 shares on Jan. 15 but only 560 on Dec. 31. When you compound the future appreciation of those shares over years, you moved a lot of future value out of your estate by giving early in the year.

Gifts early in the year also remove from your income tax return any income generated by the investment during the year. The whole family benefits when you use this strategy to shift income to a lower-tax-bracket family member.

An alternative is to make gifts of investment property during a market downturn instead of by the calendar. You probably think about making portfolio changes when the market moves, trying to buy low and sell high. Also consider making gifts after prices drop. You can give away far more shares of property when the price is down, so market panics are a good time to make gifts.

Give more. Most people want to give only the annual exclusion amount. But if you own appreciating assets, it makes sense to give more of them now to the extent you can live without them. Remember the lifetime estate and gift tax exemption is indexed only for the Consumer Price Index. If your assets are appreciating faster than that and your estate value is at or close to the lifetime exempt amount, you’re losing ground. Eventually your estate will be more valuable than the exemption and the annual exclusion won’t be enough to keep significant wealth from being taxed.

In those cases, it makes sense to use the exempt amount with gifts. Put appreciating assets in the hands of loved ones early. You don’t have to give them direct control. Assets can be removed from your estate using trusts, limited partnerships, and other vehicles.

Give property you expect to appreciate. Too many people make cash gifts with their annual exclusion. When your goals are to establish a legacy, provide for loved ones, and reduce estate and gift taxes over the long-term, there’s a better approach.

Give property you expect to appreciate over time. By giving the property now, you are removing all the future value from your estate tax free. You are transferring that future value to your loved ones. The appreciation and future value are what will provide financial security for them.

Cash is very likely to be spent, not invested. Giving appreciating assets might discourage some loved ones from selling them and spending the proceeds. As I said earlier, you can give through trusts, partnerships, and other vehicles to reduce the chance donees will sell the assets.

Retain property with big gains. Most of the time you don’t want to give property in which you’ve earned big gains. When you give appreciated property, the recipient’s tax basis is the same basis you had in the property. The recipient will owe capital gains taxes on all the appreciation that occurred during your lifetime when he or she sells it, because capital gains are paid on the price received for property minus its tax basis.

When the recipient is in the 0% capital gains tax bracket, the gift of appreciated property can be a good idea. Otherwise, it is better to hold the asset for your estate. The person who inherits it can increase the basis to the current fair market value. All the appreciation during your lifetime won’t be subject to capital gains taxes.

Ideally, you want to give property you expect to appreciate but that hasn’t appreciated substantially in your hands.

Keep loss property. It’s almost always a mistake to give property that’s declined below its tax basis. The donee’s basis in the property would be the lower of the current value and your basis in it. So, when you give loss property, the donee’s basis will be the current fair market value and no one will deduct the loss that occurred while you held it.

It’s better for you to sell the property, deduct the loss on your tax return, and give the cash proceeds. Or find other property to give.

Consider income taxes. Fewer estates are subject to the estate tax, and income taxes are a bigger expense to many people. That’s why you should consider income taxes and capital gains taxes in your giving strategies. Consider giving to loved ones assets that generate ordinary income that you don’t need to maintain your standard of living, if those loved ones are in lower tax brackets. Reducing the income taxes that are extracted from you now will leave more wealth available to your loved ones.

When you make gifts to minors, pay attention to the Kiddie Tax. It was tightened a few years ago, so in more cases investment income earned by minors will be taxed at their parents’ highest tax rate. Generally, the Kiddie Tax kicks in when a child’s investment income exceeds $1,900 for the year and the child was under age 19 (or under 24 if a full-time college student). It doesn’t matter if the parents claim the child as a dependent. You can find details about the Kiddie Tax in IRS Publications 17 and 929 and in the instructions to Form 8615 available free at www.irs.gov.

Maximize trust gifts. A gift to a trust qualifies for the annual exemption if the gift is direct and immediate. To meet these requirements, the trust should have a Crummey clause, which gives the beneficiary the right to withdraw the gift from the trust. A beneficiary must be aware of the withdrawal right. The right to withdraw can expire after a period of time, such as 60 days. If the gift is not withdrawn in the time period, it stays in the trust and is subject to its limits. Of course, if a beneficiary does withdraw a gift from a trust, there is no obligation to make future gifts.

A gift to a trust with a valid Crummey clause qualifies for the annual gift tax exclusion. It removes the property from your estate, but it does not give the beneficiary unfettered control of and access to the wealth. Once the right to withdraw the gift expires, the property is subject to the terms of the trust. You can use trusts to remove property from your estate, provide income to beneficiaries, but impose some restrictions and professional management on the property.

Add contingent beneficiaries. The annual gift tax exemption amount can be contributed for each beneficiary of a trust. If there are three beneficiaries, $42,000 can be contributed tax free when the trust has a Crummey clause. Contingent beneficiaries also increase the tax free gifts when the trust is properly drafted. For example, your children can be the main beneficiaries of the trust and the grandchildren contingent beneficiaries. You can make gifts that qualify for the annual exclusion for each of the grandchildren. Your estate planner should know how the trust must be written for contingent beneficiaries to increase the annual exempt amount.

Make discounted gifts. A discounted gift is one in which the value of the property for tax purposes is less than the current value of the property. The value is discounted because there are some restrictions or defects that reduce the value to the beneficiary.

For example, you can transfer real estate or shares of a business to a limited partnership and give your children limited partnership interests. The value of the limited partnership interests will be less than a pro rate share of the property in the LP, because there isn’t a ready market for the ownership interests and the limited partners are minority owners with restricted influence and control over management. Discounted values often are 20% or more, depending on the details of the arrangement.

Discounted gifts can be made through some trusts, limited partnerships, corporations, and other vehicles. Work with your estate planner to devise the best strategy for you.

5 Toxic Stocks to Sell Before It's Too Late

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Don't get distracted by cheers on Wall Street this week. While most investors are busy celebrating another set of all-time highs in the stock market, a handful of "toxic" stocks could be ravaging your portfolio returns.

Make no mistake -- I'm not warning you about an impending crash today. This column isn't my version of a cardboard sign that reads, "The end is near". In fact, I've made no bones about the fact that I've been bullish all year.

But there's a big difference between thinking that the broad market is going to move higher, and thinking that every single stock is going to go higher. It's the laggard names that will gut your performance if you aren't quick to unload them.

That's why we're taking a closer look at five "toxic stocks" you should be selling in November. To be fair, the companies I'm talking about today aren't exactly "junk."

By that, I mean they're not next up in line at bankruptcy court -- but that's frankly irrelevant. From a technical analysis standpoint, they're some of the worst-positioned names out there right now. For that reason, fundamental investors need to decide how long they're willing to take the pain if they want to hold onto these firms this summer. And for investors looking to buy one of these positions, it makes sense to wait for more favorable technical conditions (and a lower share price) before piling in.

For the unfamiliar, technical analysis is a way for investors to quantify qualitative factors, such as investor psychology, based on a stock's price action and trends. Once the domain of cloistered trading teams on Wall Street, technicals can help top traders make consistently profitable trades and can aid fundamental investors in better planning their stock execution.

So, without further ado, let's take a look at five "toxic stocks" you should be unloading.

Luxottica Group

First up is $25 billion eyewear stock Luxottica Group (LUX). Luxottica has posted some solid performance year-to-date, rallying more than 28% since the calendar flipped over to January. But this stock looks downright toxic right now. Here's why.

Luxottica is currently forming a bearish price setup called a descending triangle. The pattern is formed by a horizontal support level below shares at $51 and downtrending resistance to the topside. As shares bounce between those two technically significant price levels, LUX is getting squeezed closer to a breakdown below that $51 price floor. When that happens, we've got our sell signal in this fashion stock.

Declining volume over the course of the setup in LUX adds some confirmation to the trade, but the downtrend in relative strength is the real problem in this chart. LUX has been underperforming the broad market horrifically in the last quarter, and a move through the $51 level would sap a lot more buying pressure from shares.

If you still own LUX, look for that sell signal as your exit.

iRobot

Small-cap robotics maker iRobot (IRBT) is an interesting company with a very cool line-up of products -- that's part of what's spurred a huge 81% rally in 2013. But none of that changes the fact that shares look toxic this quarter. In fact, the valuation premium on IRBT means that it could take a bigger haircut before it finds a floor.

iRobot is currently forming the exact same setup as the one we're seeing in LUX: a descending triangle. For IRBT, support comes in at $32. If shares slip below that price, then it's time to unload shares.

Whenever you're looking at any technical price pattern, it's critical to think in terms of buyers and sellers. Triangles and other pattern names are a good quick way to explain what's going on in a stock, but they're not the reason it's tradable. Instead, it all comes down to supply and demand for shares.

That support level at $32 is a price where there had been an excess of demand of shares; in other words, it's a place where buyers were more eager to step in and buy shares at a lower price than sellers were to sell. That's what makes a breakdown below $32 so significant -- the move would indicate that sellers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess demand above that price level. Wait for that trigger before you sell.

HCP

You don't have to be an expert technical analyst to see what's going on in shares of health care REIT HCP (HCP). This stock is in stuck in a textbook downtrending channel. Fundamentally, there's a lot to like about this stock, but HCP is a good example of why it's never a good idea to chase yield; HCP may have a 5.29% annual dividend payout, but shares have lost more than that in the last month alone.

HCP's price channel has provided traders with a high-probability range for shares since the middle of the year. Despite the last four attempts at pushing through trendline resistance, shares have been swatted down on each attempt. And while HCP has been turning higher in the last few sessions, investors should look at trendline resistance at $42 with a lot of skepticism. That's probably the worst possible time to be a buyer.

Instead, it makes sense to sell near the trendline for a most efficient exit in HCP. Yes, trendlines do eventually break, but getting in now is a big mistake. After all "this time it's different" are probably the most expensive four words in the English language. As long as shares stay within that channel, sell the bounce.

Silicon Image

The exact same setup is shaping up in shares of small-cap semiconductor firm Silicon Image (SIMG). Like HCP, this firm is stuck trading in a downtrending channel. Unlike HCP, trendline resistance is a whole lot stronger in this stock. Shares have gotten swatted down on each of the last eight attempts through that ceiling; with shares at resistance again, the high-probability move is to the downside.

Again, relative strength has been terrible since the summer; SIMG is underperforming the S&P by a considerable margin. Downtrending relative strength is a cardinal sin for stocks, so with shares sitting at resistance, now's a stellar place to be a seller. While support has been pretty strong along the way down, SIMG's previous penetrations through S1 should be a big red flag that buyers are skittish.

SIMG is in a textbook downtrend right now. Don't get caught on the wrong side of the trade.

LKQ

Last up on our list of toxic names is LKQ (LKQ), a $10 billion auto parts stock. Even though it's been a strong year for auto names, LKQ is starting to look "toppy" thanks to a prominent reversal pattern that's been shaping up in shares. While it's still early to suggest selling (or shorting) LKQ, shareholders should start thinking defensively here.

LKQ is currently forming a head and shoulders top, a bearish reversal setup that indicates exhaustion among buyers. The setup is formed by two swing highs that top out around the same level (the shoulders), separated by a bigger peak called the head; the sell signal comes on the breakdown below the pattern's "neckline" level, which is right at $31 at the moment for LKQ. If this stock can't catch a bid at $31, unload it.

Lower highs in momentum add some extra confidence to the bear bias in LKQ this fall. Despite the pop shares have seen in the last few days, 14-day RSI can't break its downtrend. Hopeful bulls take note: this pattern gets invalidated on a move above the head at $33.

To see this week's trades in action, check out the Technical Setups for the Week portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

Monday, December 30, 2013

Forbes Media exploring sale

Forbes Media, controlled by former presidential candidate Steve Forbes, is up for sale.

In a memo sent to employees Friday, CEO Mike Perlis said the company has received indications of interest from investors for a deal.

"The frequency and serious nature of these overtures have brought us to a decision point," he wrote. "We have hired Deutsche Bank to represent us, and we expect interest from numerous suitors."

The company is looking to sell for about $400 million, according to a report by Bloomberg.

The magazine, founded in 1917 by business journalist B. C. Forbes, has been aggressively investing in its digital properties recently to make up for the sluggishness in the print ad market.

In a profile of Perlis that ran in the New York Times earlier this week, a Forbes spokeswoman said that advertising revenue for Forbes.com would grow by 35% from 2010 to 2013.

Forbes' ad pages in the magazine fell 1% in the third quarter from a year ago, while ad dollars grew 3%, according to the Association of Magazine Media.

Elevation Partners, an investment firm, bought a minority stake in the company in 2006.

"Digital revenues are expected to increase over 25% by the end of the year," Perlis wrote. "Our efforts have also focused on diversifying our revenue streams to complement our advertising-based businesses - and many of our initiatives have come to fruition this year.

Late-payment rate on mortgages at 5-year low

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Fewer U.S. homeowners are falling behind on their mortgage payments, aided by rising home values, low interest rates and stable job gains.

The trend brought down the national late-payment rate on home loans in the third quarter to a five-year low, credit reporting agency TransUnion said Tuesday.

The percentage of mortgage holders at least two months behind on their payments fell in the July-September quarter to 4.09% from a revised 5.33% a year earlier, according to the firm, whose data go back to 1992.

The latest rate also declined from 4.32% in the second quarter.

The last time the mortgage delinquency rate was lower was the third quarter of 2008.

Within a few years of setting that mark, foreclosures began to mount as home values tumbled from housing-boom highs, leaving many homeowners in negative equity — owing more on their mortgage than the value of their home. The dynamic drove mortgage delinquencies higher, peaking at nearly 7% in the fourth quarter of 2009.

The rate of late payments on home loans has been steadily declining over the past five quarters. At the same time, U.S. home sales and prices have been rebounding over the past two years, while foreclosures have been declining.

Moderate but stable job gains, still-low mortgage interest rates, and tight supply of homes for sale have helped fuel the housing rebound. That's also made it easier for homeowners to refinance, catch up on payments or sell their home, avoiding foreclosure.

2014 HOUSING OUTLOOK: Realtors forecast flat sales, rising prices

HOME PRICES: Top 10 states where home prices are surging

Even so, the mortgage delinquency rate is still above the 1 to 2% average historical range. That suggests that many homeowners still are struggling to make their payments. It also reflects that many home loans made during the housing boom remain unpaid but have yet to work their way through the foreclosure process.

Loans made in the years after the housing bo! om are generally being paid on time, so as more of the older loans listed on banks' books as unpaid get resolved, the overall mortgage delinquency rate should continue to decline, said Tim Martin, group vice president of U.S Housing for TransUnion's financial services business unit.

"The new mortgages are still performing very well, at very low delinquency rates," Martin said. "That's why we're expecting more improvement to come."

TransUnion forecasts that the national mortgage delinquency rate will drop to just under 4 percent by the end of year.

All the states posted an annual drop in late-payment rates during the third quarter, with California, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado and Utah registering declines of more than 30 percent.

TransUnion draws its data from 52 million installment-based mortgages in the U.S.

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Advisory expansion at Schwab helps 3Q profits climb

schwab, third quarter, revenue, profits, earnings Bloomberg News

Third-quarter profits grew at The Charles Schwab Corp. as the firm worked to expand its advisory services division, company officials said Tuesday.

Schwab increased its profits by 17.4% to $290 million over the comparable quarter in 2012, according to a statement.

The earnings reflect Schwab's continued evolution from a pioneer of discount brokerage to a provider of broader advisory services, Schwab chief executive Walt Bettinger said in the statement.

Nearly half the firm's $2.15 trillion in client assets are in an advisory program, a 17% increase from last year. Schwab provides custody services for independent financial advisers in addition to its retail-brokerage and pooled-investments businesses.

“These client results supported double-digit percentage increases in all three of our main revenue sources and 15% overall revenue growth versus the year-ago quarter,” Mr. Bettinger said. “Even with the continued head wind created by an interest rate environment that remains at historic lows, our third-quarter revenues surpassed all our prior quarterly results save the extraordinary spike we experienced at the height of the internet bubble.”

The results helped push shares of the company ahead $1.02, or 4.63% to $23.03 on Tuesday amid a broad stock market decline.

Despite the results, Schwab has suffered some setbacks.

Schwab's

Friday, December 27, 2013

Americans eating more desserts more often

Americans refuse to desert the dessert.

A nation that has supposedly bought in to better-for-you eating habits is actually consuming more desserts more often, according to a new report from Technomic, the food industry research specialist.

Sorry, Michelle Obama. But some 40% of consumers surveyed say they're eating desserts after a meal at least twice weekly -- compared to 36% just three years ago, the report says. The report is based on a national survey of 1,500 U.S. consumers.

What's more, a growing number of consumers say they're eating dessert during mid-morning and mid-afternoon hours -- sometimes as snacks and sometimes after meals.

"Consumers aren't holding off on dessert until after dinner," says Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic. "They're reaching for easily accessible, hand-held and portable treats at just about any time of day."

Desserts, he says, also are sometimes used as meal replacements.

The uptick in dessert purchases also is being driven by:

• Consumer moods. Some 78% of consumers say they are more likely to eat dessert when they want to treat or reward themselves. And 60% say they order dessert because they are feeling "happy."

• What others do. Many consumers will only order dessert if someone shares it with them. Desserts purchased at 44% of full-service restaurants are shared, the survey reports.

• Available "healthy" options. More than one-third of consumers (36%) say they are more likely to order dessert if a "mini" portion is available.

A long shutdown could slow some mortgage loans

A short federal government shutdown won't derail the housing recovery, but it could delay closing of some home loans.

If the shutdown runs less than week, no big deal, lenders and mortgage experts say. Most loans take 30 to 60 days to close, and a short delay in processing won't likely affect that.

But if the shutdown goes longer, "We will be delaying closings," says David Zugheri, executive vice president of Houston-based Envoy Mortgage.

The biggest holdup is likely to involve the IRS.

When they consider a mortgage application, lenders pull borrower tax records direct from the IRS. Without an IRS response, "That will be where the holdup occurs," says Don Frommeyer, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.

At Envoy, brokers rushed in recent days to get such requests in so fewer loans would be affected, Zugheri says. Builder Fulton Homes in Phoenix did the same, says Dennis Webb, vice president of operations.

Even so, a shutdown running longer than a week could result in loan delays, Zugheri says. He estimates 25% of his company's loan closings — or several hundred nationwide — could be delayed, largely because of the IRS issue.

Wells Fargo says IRS information requests were already processed for most loans in the pipeline. New applicants will go through the same check. Wells Fargo says it expects the IRS to quickly resume processing requests once the shutdown has ended.

FHA borrowers, who account for about 15% of the market, may see additional hassles.

The U.S. Housing and Urban Development's contingency plan says FHA will have "limited staff" during a shutdown and that the closing of FHA-insured loans may be delayed.

Even so, bigger lenders will continue to close FHA loans because they have authority from the FHA to assure the agency that the loan has been properly checked, says Michael Copley, retail lending executive at TD Bank.

About 80% of FHA loans are endorsed by lenders with that authority, HUD says.

Sma! ller lenders may not have that authority, so their FHA business could be affected more, Copley says.

If the shutdown goes longer than three weeks, look for ripple effects, says Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance.

For instance, home sellers may be hesitant to accept offers from FHA borrowers, who are often first-time borrowers with low down payments, because they fear loan-closing delays, he says.

Last week, the average 30-year fixed-rate loan hit its lowest level since July, Freddie Mac says. Typically, lenders lock rates for 45 to 60 days while loans get processed, says Keith Gumbinger of mortgage tracker HSH Associates.

Consumers concerned about loan-closing delays should check with lenders to see what rate-lock extensions are available, he says.

Morgan Stanley nabs $1.5B J.P. Morgan team

Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley has landed a $1.5 billion team from J.P. Morgan Securities LLC in the latest in a series of high-profile, late-summer acquisitions.

Scott Siegel, a Barron's top 1,000 adviser, and his team of Mehmet Kirdar, Michael O'Hara and Joseph Carmody, have joined Morgan Stanley's New York City office, the company announced Tuesday.

The team moved last Friday from J.P. Morgan, with the exception of Mr. Carmody, who was recruited from UBS Financial Services Inc.

Known as the SKOC team at Morgan Stanley, the group has $6.1 million of trailing 12-month production, according to the firm.

Doug Morris, a J.P. Morgan spokesman, declined to comment.

Mr. Siegel and his branch manager, Michael Simeone, were not immediately available Tuesday.

A March Barron's profile said Mr. Siegel manages balanced portfolios and favors high-yield bonds of five to eight years, together with dividend and value stocks.

Last Friday, Morgan Stanley landed Atlanta-based Jason Moss, a former Bank of America Merrill Lynch broker with $130 million in assets, in addition to the Coral Gables, Fla., team of Al Maulini and Joseph Torano, who managed $121 million at HSBC Securities Inc.

Last Thursday, Morgan picked up brothers Frank and Donald Marano from Raymond James Financial Services Inc. The Allentown, Pa., duo manages $100 million.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Pier 1 Imports Slides on Disappointing Earnings

New York (TheStreet) -- Pier 1 Imports (PIR) shares slid more than 7% in premarket trading Thursday after the home furnishings and decor company posted disappointing earnings that it attributed to lower-than-expected store traffic in the quarter.

Pier 1 reported net income dropped 32% in the fiscal second quarter to $17.8 million, or 17 cents a share. Adjusted net income totaled $20.7 million, or 19 cents a share. The Fort Worth, Texas-based company's second quarter ended on Aug. 31.

Wall Street was looking for Pier 1 to post earnings of 21 cents a share in the quarter.

Shares were falling 7.4% to $21.85 before the market opened.

Sales improved in the quarter, up 7.6% to $395.6 million, even if they did come in shy of analysts' forecasts of $405 million. Comparable-store sales increased 3.5% during the second quarter, but were down from last year's comparable-store sales gain of 6.7%.

"For each of the last 15 quarters we've prided ourselves on our ability to deliver consistent short-term results while building out our '1 Pier 1' omni-channel strategy," Alex W. Smith, Pier I Imports' president and CEO, said in an earnings statement. "During the second quarter, the efforts focused around our short- and long-term goals fell slightly out of balance. In particular, our marketing initiatives did not include appropriate messaging around clearance and promotional activity in our stores, or customer acquisition generally, which contributed to lower than expected store traffic. We should also have done a better job of flowing new product to the stores and reflecting those items in the floor set."

As a percentage of sales, gross profit was 40.8% compared with 41.2% in the second quarter of fiscal 2013.

Second-quarter selling, general and administrative expenses were $122.6 million, or 31% of sales, compared with $112 million, or 30.5% of sales, in the second quarter last year.

The company has been focused on boosting its online sales. Pier 1 said in August the online business "achieved a new high water mark" of 5% of total sales, coinciding with the first anniversary of its e-commerce enabled Web site.

Still, Pier 1 lowered its full-year guidance to a range of $1.23 to $1.29 a share, representing year-over-year growth of 5% to 10%, compared to prior guidance of $1.27 to $1.32 a share.

"We've entered the third quarter with a very clean inventory position and a terrific assortment of fall product newly set in the stores. Customers are responding favorably to both regular and seasonal merchandise," Smith said. "We're confident in our plans for the holiday season, including a stepped up marketing campaign which will see our return to advertising on network TV. We believe the business is well-positioned for the second half of the year and expect to return to our historical levels of quarterly sales and profit growth."

As of Aug. 31, the company's cash and cash equivalents totaled $124.9 million. Inventory totaled $444.7 million, an increase of 5.7% from a year earlier and in line with management's expectations, the retailer said.

-- Written by Laurie Kulikowski in New York.

Ford to Set Up EV Charging Stations for Plant Employees

Ford GMIn a bid to promote electric car use among its own workers, another U.S. auto giant is making it easier for employees to recharge their vehicles while at work.

On Monday, Ford (F) announced that, beginning in November, it will place charging stations at its offices and factories across the U.S. and Canada. More that 50 company locations will receive the stations, which can recharge the battery of an Ford-made electric vehicle in about four hours, Reuters notes.

California Cruisin': Tesla Torches Other Luxury Brands
California Cruisin': Tesla Torches Other Luxury Brands

Use of electric vehicles will shave workers an estimated $2 a day in gas. It will cost the company about 50 cents for each vehicle charge. Workers will be able to charge their vehicles for free for four hours.

Ford did not indicate how much it would cost the company to deploy the charging stations. The company joins General Motors (GM), which has 795 charging stations across the U.S., and Nissan (NSANY), which has installed 160 chargers at its U.S. locations.

In July, Ford said it would cut the price of its electric Focus EV by $4,000, pushing the base price down from $39,200 to $35,200.

Last year, General Electric (GE) announced that it would acquire 2,000 plug-in Ford C-Max hybrids, as part of its drive to replace half its fleet with alternative-fuel vehicles.

Shares of Ford climbed more than 1% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Emerging Markets Guru Mark Mobius - Notes from the Nigerian Frontier

Many frontier markets continue to stand out as particularly attractive to us right now, as a number of developed and even some established emerging markets have been experiencing a few soft GDP growth trends this year. Frontier markets are considered a subset of emerging markets, often smaller and less-developed. My travels recently took me to one of the largest frontier markets, Nigeria, where my team and I were able to see the changes taking place in the country and talk to company owners and managers about the challenges of doing business there. As we scouted for potential investment opportunities, we found some surprises too.

Nigeria boasts one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, with GDP growth rates above 6% every year since 20031. Home to more than 170 million people, it is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populated country in the world. The United Nations has projected its population could rise into the top three by 2050, potentially overtaking the United States2.

Unfortunately, Nigeria also has a tragic history of conflicts and power struggles, being a country that consists of more than 500 different ethnic groups. Since gaining independence in 1960, Nigeria has had eight military governments, numerous civilian-led governments and experienced a 30-month civil war. In April 2011, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan won the elections to become the country's president. The challenges confronting Jonathan and his party today are many, including much-needed reforms, particularly in the oil and power sectors. Economic problems have magnified the ethnic and religious divisions in the country, as per capita incomes are low and there are still great disparities in income levels.

[ Enlarge Image ]

On the street in Lagos, Nigeria

The Importance of Oil – and Security

Oil exports, of great importance to the econo! my, have been disrupted a number of times by conflicts in the Niger Delta, where oil supplies have been a target of thieves. An amnesty program has resulted in some reduction in the incidents, but the dangers of instability remain.

Security remains an important issue for businesses in Nigeria, although it doesn't necessarily mean danger is lurking everywhere in the country. The main security threat is regional, particularly in the northern and Niger Delta areas and mainly from Islamist militants such as the Boko Haram who target security forces, religious sites, telecommunication assets and state infrastructure. With a network of patronage, corruption is also a major problem. The good news is that Nigeria's leaders are aware of the need to maintain a balance of power between the various regions and are working to improve the situation the best they can.

Part of the problem stems from government subsidies of refined oil products, which have led to a vast business of smuggling subsidized fuel out of the country and selling it at higher market prices. In early 2012, the government halved this subsidy and has stated an intention to remove it entirely in the near future. This should help reduce smuggling problems, in our view. Oil theft in general is a big problem in Nigeria; it has been estimated about 10% of the total oil production is stolen. Production is now running at about 2 million barrels per day (or about 700 million a year)3, which means about 70 million barrels are stolen each year.

Inflation has been another problem for businesses and consumers in Nigeria, although it has been coming down in the past decade. This year, inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, could finish at single-digit levels if near the current pace4. This is a significant improvement from the 1990s, when annual inflation rates exceeded 50%. With inflation dropping, we think Nigeria's central bank could have more flexibility to lower its benchmark interest rate, as it has been quite high (at! 12%) sin! ce the end of 2011.

The Investment Landscape

Nigeria possesses plentiful natural resources but at present is held back by a critical lack of infrastructure. Most hotels and businesses require their own gasoline or diesel electric power generators because of the unreliability of the government power system. This situation speaks to the demand in general for more power sources in emerging, and particularly frontier markets. A South Korean company recently made a much-welcomed pledge to invest US$30 billion in Nigeria's power sector over the next ten years. In May, the World Bank and IFC also announced plans to invest about US$1 billion in the country's energy sector. Foreign investments such as these in Nigeria's energy sector could further support its economic growth.

Recent plans by the government to privatize the power industry have opened the door to the possibility of dramatic increases in future foreign investment. This could reduce the burden of subsidies on the government budget and spawn profitable enterprises able to pay taxes. The multibillion dollar plan includes the sale of four thermal plants, two hydropower plants and 11 electric distribution companies. If successful, the shortage of electric power and high cost of alternative electricity supply, which has hindered economic activity, should be alleviated and could result in accelerated growth over the longer term.

While most investors are keenly aware of Nigeria's oil riches, it is important to note that Nigeria now exports 117 different commodities to 103 countries around the world. Although oil remains the dominant export, there are a number of companies in Nigeria unrelated to the oil sector where we see potential opportunities. Recently, we visited some of them, starting with a large cement company.

The executives of the cement company told us that they planned to increase local production capacity by some 9 million tons per year by 2016. To promote local production, the government gives a tax holid! ay of thr! ee to five years to new plants. Nigeria has plenty of high quality limestone, the main raw material for cement, in addition to relatively cheap gas to run the plants. Domestic demand for cement is growing at about 10% per year with most going to the private sector and relatively little to the public sector, which we see as an indication that infrastructure spending in Nigeria is lacking. However, this trend appears destined to change.

[ Enlarge Image ]Visiting a Nigerian cement companyOne executive at the firm told us that Nigeria was often underestimated. The biggest challenge from his perspective? A lack of effective political will and, in particular, little willingness to promote the domestic agricultural sector, since Nigeria is importing some US$1.2 billion worth of food products yearly. However, he also believed the government was generally constructive and had a good economic advisory team.

We also visited a beer producer. Executives of the firm said that the operating environment has been affected by fuel price increases and higher power prices. In addition, distribution is sometimes a problem given security challenges. However, the real problem contributing to instability was seen as high unemployment and a young and fast-growing population who want jobs. While the definition of "middle class" may not closely mirror that of highly developed countries, there is an expanding class of consumers who have growing amounts of discretionary income to spend, so food and beverage companies are hoping to benefit.

Nigeria's reformed banking system has provided many foreigners with an attractive means to invest in the fast-growing domestic economy. The banking industry is important, not only because of the rise of microfinance, but because of the move by banks into consumer banking. Until recently, banks were mainly financing large businesses or the gove! rnment th! rough bond purchases. Following a banking crisis in 2008, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) conducted an audit of the commercial banking sector. All banks that failed the audit had their CEOs replaced. The state-owned Asset Management Corporation (AMCON) was created to purchase non-performing loans and recapitalize the unhealthy banks. A recent review of the country's banks by the IMF showed a dramatic increase in profits for the industry in 2012, while the capital adequacy ratio was above the minimum requirement of 10% and non-performing loans were below the mandated threshold of 5%5.

Executives at a Nigerian bank that we visited were quite honest about the challenges they face. They felt the market was inherently risky amid political uncertainty, a potentially volatile currency, and state interference and corruption. The good news was that the AMCON clean-up of the banking sector was now complete and bank managements were now working to meet their growth targets and become more profitable. They anticipated growth would come from lending for infrastructure projects, power and agriculture. In addition, the consumer banking market has been expanding fast. Like a number of Nigerian banks, this bank was multinational, with operations outside the country.

Another company we visited was a leading food-focused conglomerate in Nigeria, with a range of fast food restaurants and branded food products catering to a broad section of the population. The executives echoed the security issues we heard elsewhere, particularly in the north of the country, which affected its distribution and manufacturing. Perhaps even more important from their perspective were the increased import duties and levies on wheat, impacting input costs in food manufacturing and restaurants.

In the oil sector, we visited a firm that has changed its strategy and transformed from being just a core local downstream oil marketing concern to becoming an integrated "energy group" with business lines spanning not just petrol! eum marke! ting but also the exploration and production of crude oil, international oil trading, gas and power solutions, and oil services support.

Like all our travels, these visits to Nigerian companies were important for us to see exactly what issues business owners face and how they were dealing with them. We believe the Nigerian economy and body politic should strengthen as the country moves forward with reform efforts, and we think our investment opportunities there will expand. Nigeria represents an intriguing investment destination to us, and not only because of its oil riches. Government efforts in the areas of privatization and investment in industries such as mining, agriculture, finance and manufacturing to diversify its dependence on the oil sector could help the economy in the longer term.

Can You Build a Liquid Portfolio with Illiquid Stocks?

Someone who reads my articles sent me this email:

Hi Geoff,

Thinking about one of your posts, "Illiquidity and You"… I have a question that is somewhat imprecise.

I have doubts about the size of the position you should have in illiquid stocks (like SODI and others) regarding the overall size of your portfolio. You can assume here that we are not talking about control investing in any form and you do not need the money… considering that usually you do not take too concentrated position in this kind of stock (as opposed to a Buffett-Munger kind) what size should be wise?

Up to what amount can you consider that your portfolio is too big for these kinds of opportunities?

It would be very helpful for me if you can give me a numerical example and some advice to analyze this type of situation.

Regards,

Fernando

For things like Japanese net-nets, I don't put more than 10% of my portfolio in any one stock. And I don't put more than 50% of my portfolio in the whole group. But this is my personal preference. Let's talk a little about how illiquidity applies to everyone — not just me.

First of all, I'm going to take your question about at what size your portfolio is too big for a Ben Graham-type net-net like Solitron Devices (SODI). It depends on the amount of stock you can buy and the position size you like. For me, I try not to start buying a stock that I think will never make up 10% of my portfolio. If you don't mind having 5% positions in your portfolio, your portfolio can obviously be twice as big as mine and you can still consider buying the same small stocks I do. In terms of specific stocks, it depends on the amount of float and the volume the stock trades in an average month. We are really getting into specifics here. And I may be boring people. But if you'd like to hear more about the minutiae of how you actually buy and sell tiny stocks like these, let me know, and I'll do an article on the subject.

By the way, there is ! a hard and fast rule of thumb that it usually makes no sense to invest in a company with a market cap that is smaller than your portfolio. This is true for both fund and individual investors. Funds break it all the time. But, frankly, it is probably a waste of an analyst/fund manager's time to even analyze such tiny positions relative to the size of the whole portfolio. Since even when we are discussing very small stocks we are still talking about millions and millions of dollars in market cap, this is hardly a concern for most individuals.

So, for individual investors, actual inability to acquire enough shares of a company to meaningful influence their portfolio is rarely the problem. If you bid for a stock month after month — you'll get your shares.

The concern for individual investors is not whether buying enough shares is possible. The concern is how quickly and easily you can buy and sell. This is what we call "liquidity."

Instead of thinking about stocks as liquid or illiquid, you should think in terms of your portfolio and your liquidity needs. It doesn't make much sense to use what I'll call an "objective" (as in stock-oriented) approach to liquidity rather than a "subjective" (as in investor-oriented) approach to liquidity.

For example, let's say you have a $1 million portfolio. And let's say that given your current situation in life, your job, how much you are saving, etc., it makes little sense for you to ever need more than $100,000 to spend in a year. This would even be true if say you have needs in terms of making a down payment on a house, paying for a child's education, etc. In this example, you would have a large portfolio for an individual investor. However, whether you have a $1 million portfolio or a $100,000 portfolio is not the determining factor in your attitude toward liquidity.

So what is?

The fact that you are an individual investor means your liquidity needs are lower than any institution. This is critical. And many people overl! ook it. W! hat works for a mutual fund manager — or what doesn't work for a mutual fund manager — may have little to do with what works for you as an individual investor. I point this out because I would never manage an institutional fund — especially something like an open ended mutual fund — the same way I would manage my own money or a small, investment partnership where investors are "locked up."

Bruce Berkowitz (at Fairholme) and Marty Whitman (at Third Avenue) need to be careful about liquidity. You don't. At least not in the same way they do. And not for the same reasons. They need to make sure individual position sizes are not huge. Why? Because they could own too much Bank of America (BAC) shares at the same moment that too many of their investors want to bail out. If you look at the history of many value mutual funds, you'll see that their investors abandoned them in the midst of the dot-com craze. That was probably the worst time to sell old economy value stocks. But if you managed an open-ended mutual fund, that's exactly what you had to do. You had to sell whether you wanted to or not.

You don't have that problem. Only you can force yourself to redeem stocks for cash. The one exception to this — and it's a big exception — is a personal emergency. A funding need. Like, for instance, losing your job. That is something you can't control. And you need to be prepared for things you can't control. So does a mutual fund manager. But for the mutual fund manager the risks of illiquidity are higher. Because his own fund's investors can force him to sell stock at exactly the wrong moment. They'll probably panic when everyone else panics. When the market panics.

Will you?

In some ways, you can be less concerned about selling during a panic. I don't know. This depends on your own disposition. Maybe you are just as likely to panic as any other investor. If that's true — you have a big problem. And you need to address it. Either by curing yourself o! f panicki! ng when everyone else is panicking too or by staying out of stocks. But if you are going to be a successful individual stock investor you'll need to hold stocks when everyone else is selling them. Mutual fund managers don't have this luxury. They have to sell when their investors sell. You don't.

So that's a personal issue. One only you can answer. Let's talk about something that applies to everyone.

The way to think about liquidity is to imagine a bath tub. This analogy works as well for your liquidity position as it does for a company's liquidity position. Ask the same questions about your liquidity that you would ask about a company's liquidity.

Is cash flowing into or out of your portfolio on a, let's say, monthly basis? If you have a few thousand dollars on hand in a bank account, and you're 35 or 45 and/or you're putting some money into savings every month, liquidity is a very minor concern for you. It may not feel that way. But if you are adding to your investable funds every month or every year or whatever, you are actually in a pretty strong position in terms of liquidity. If you need to, you can stop adding to investments and increase the amount of cash you have on hand that way.

Liquidity is not just about being rich or poor. It's not just about having few liquid assets or having a lot. The flow is often more important than the stock. Even a rich retiree is often in a weak liquidity position. If you're retired with $1 million, that may mean you can't invest much in illiquid funds.

If you're usually drawing on your investment funds over a full year instead of adding to them, illiquid stocks aren't for you. This is an ironclad rule. Illiquid stocks are for savers. Not for spenders.

Okay. What if your liquidity position is okay — you're working age, have a salary and save a little bit at least every month — what should you do?

My advice is to divide your portfolio into three parts:

Money that is always touchableMoney th! at is onl! y touchable in a true emergencyMoney that is never touchable — not even in an emergencyIlliquid stocks fall into category number three. Solitron Devices (SODI) is to be considered an always-untouchable stock. Yes, you will sell it one day. Of course. Every stock you buy is something you intend to sell one day. But you can never count on selling a stock like Solitron. That's what an illiquid stock is. It's a stock you can't count on selling. Sure, you can sell it — some day at some price. But not necessarily today at the current price. That's what makes an illiquid stock "untouchable money."

You should always treat your investment in a stock like Solitron Devices as if it would take a full year to extract that money and put it in your pocket.

Always touchable money is cash. For individuals, there's little reason for it not to be a simple bank account, money market fund, etc. For most investors, you can just let this stock sit in your brokerage account. Many brokers will sweep unused cash into a money market account — or other form of savings — where it can earn a tiny amount of interest for you while staying totally liquid. One advantage of keeping cash in this form is that you can look at your cash and stock positions on the same (web)page any time you want. So, for example, if you know you want to keep 10% of your portfolio in cash — you can see that you have $12,000 in cash as part of your $120,000 brokerage account and that means you are right on target with your liquidity goal.

In my personal opinion — and I must warn you this is not a popular or consensus opinion at all — a good individual stock picker who likes to do research himself, is better off increasing the cash portion of his portfolio and reducing the highly liquid stock portion than sticking picking only liquid stocks. So, instead of being 100% in IBM, Microsoft, Apple, Wal-Mart, 3M, etc. to get his needed liquidity, he should put 20% of his portfolio in cash, 30% in liquid stocks (like IBM), ! and 50% i! n illiquid stocks (like Solitron). In this way, he can instantly and always touch 20% of his portfolio. And he can get 50% of the money in a real time of personal need. The other 50% is totally untouchable at all times. That 50% should be thought of as retirement money or something similar. It should never be thought of as anything approaching cash.

So, in our example of a stock picker with a $120,000 portfolio, he could divide up his funds as follows:

1. $24,000 in cash

2. $36,000 in blue chip stocks

3. $60,000 in illiquid stocks

Look at that portfolio and ask yourself whether you could live with that arrangement. I know it seems inefficient to keep some money permanently in cash. But if that small cash pile allows you to — comfortably — keep more money in illiquid stocks, that could very well be the best way to go.

All of this depends on your stock picking abilities. It depends on what areas of investing you excel at. If you're great at picking Ben Graham bargains, don't put all your money in the IBMs of the world. Put some in cash. And some in stocks like Solitron.

Of course, you need to weigh how much cash to hold against how heavy that cash anchor is — and how far it drags down your performance. If we compare net-nets to blue chip stocks, you'd actually find that a portfolio that is 50% net-nets and 50% cash will tend to perform about as well as a portfolio that is 100% blue chip stocks.

By the way, that's only true if you keep your net-net trading costs to a minimum. This is something I'll talk about in other articles. But basically it means you can't trade net-nets frequently. You have to bid for them conservatively, be patient enough to wait for someone to come down to your price, and then hold net-nets for years instead of months.

If you can do all that, you can afford to hold a lot of cash and a lot of net-nets rather than a lot of blue chip stocks and zero cash.

Which portfolio is more liquid?

It depends on y! our point! of view.. To me, the 50% net-net and 50% cash portfolio provides more safety because it is still very liquid even in a market panic. The 100% blue chip stock portfolio can still drop 30% or more in a 2008 style panic. If that happens to coincide with you losing your job or something — boy, that 100% liquid stock portfolio is suddenly forcing you to sell at a bad time. Liquidity doesn't feel like much of a blessing in the midst of a market panic.

Individual position size is far less important than the overall liquidity of your portfolio. For individual investors position size shouldn't be a significant concern.

It's really the three categories: cash, liquid stocks and illiquid stocks that matter.

You can have 10 illiquid stocks of 5% each or five illiquid stocks of 10% each or two illiquid stocks of 25% each. Day-to-day the fluctuations will feel very different. But in terms of liquidity they are all similar. It can easily take one month to sell half your portfolio — if it is in stocks like SODI — in an orderly way. I wouldn't think the amount in each stock matters as much. What matters is how much of your portfolio you have in: (1) cash, (2) liquid stocks and (3) illiquid stocks.

Always look at your own personal situation. Especially pay attention to whether you are adding or subtracting from investable funds each month and each year.

Personally, I'd suggest holding more cash and more illiquid stocks at all times rather than holding only liquid stocks.

You can always hold more illiquid stocks if you increase the amount of your portfolio you keep in cash. That's one way to get comfortable holding less liquid stocks.

But each investor has to do what makes him comfortable.

So, if illiquid stocks make you uncomfortable I'd amend that advice. The best decision for any investor is usually the program — system, approach, whatever you want to call it — that allows you to make investing decisions without feeling uncomfortable and prone to panic! .

N! ever pick a portfolio allocation that looks good on paper — and is empirically proven — if it makes you uncomfortable. The element of human error you introduce will destroy any advantage the portfolio had.

Instead, pick a portfolio you can live with. Something that has empirical support. And that is psychologically suitable for you personally. Both of these elements must be present. Having only one or the other is not enough.

You need to use a proven strategy, like net-net investing. And you need to invest in a way that keeps you comfortable.

Talk to Geoff About Illiquid Stocks geoff@gurufocus.com

Northera NDA Resubmitted By Chelsea - Analyst Blog

Chelsea Therapeutics International Ltd. (CHTP) recently resubmitted a new drug application (NDA) to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Northera (droxidopa). The company is looking to get Northera approved for the treatment of symptomatic neurogenic orthostatic hypotension (NOH) in patients with primary autonomic failure (Parkinson's disease, multiple system atrophy and pure autonomic failure), dopamine beta hydroxylase deficiency and non-diabetic autonomic neuropathy.

Results from 306 B, a large phase III study demonstrating improvement in dizziness / lightheadness, the main symptom of NOH and confirming findings from the previous 301 study, was included in the resubmitted NDA.

Chelsea Therapeutics had initially submitted an NDA for Northera in Sep 2011. However, the company received a complete response letter (CRL) in Mar 2012. In the CRL, the FDA recommended that Chelsea Therapeutics should conduct and submit data from an additional positive study supporting efficacy in the 301 study. The company was also asked to design a study which would demonstrate durability of effect over a 2- to 3-month period.

In the CRL, FDA also mentioned an additional bioequivalence study for the approval of Northera 300 mg capsules. Chelsea Therapeutics was considering making these capsules commercially available to complement the 100 mg and 200 mg capsules which were being utilized in the clinical program by Chelsea Therapeutics.

Taking note of this, Chelsea Therapeutics included a bioequivalence study for the 300 mg dose in the resubmitted NDA.

The resubmitted NDA will most likely come up for review before the FDA's Cardiovascular and Renal Drug Advisory Committee (CRDAC). There is also a possibility raised by the FDA about Northera gaining accelerated approval and hinted that short-term clinical benefit would be considered adequate replacements to predict long-term clinical benefits under the accelerated approval.

Northera was granted orphan drug designation in! 2007 and received fast track designation.

Chelsea Therapeutics currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). A response from the FDA regarding Northera's approval status should be out early next year. At present, companies that look well-positioned include Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY), Targacept, Inc. (TRGT) and Palatin Technologies Inc. (PTN). All these biopharma stocks carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).


Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Will Electronic Arts Stock Continue To Rise?

With shares of Electronic Arts (NYSE:EA) trading around $25, is EA an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Electronic Arts develops, markets, publishes, and distributes game software content and services that can be played by consumers on a variety of video game machines and electronic devices. Its offers video game products through gaming consoles such as the Sony Playstation 3, Microsoft Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii. Electronic Arts's products can also be used on personal computers, mobile devices, tablets, electronic readers, and social networking sites which include popular platforms such has PCs, Apple Mac, Apple iPhone, Google Android, Apple iPad, Amazon Kindle, and Facebook.

On Tuesday afternoon, Electronic Arts delivered a loss for the latest quarter in earnings and decrease in revenue, however, the company still beat Wall Street's expectations. The earnings and revenue beat is a positive sign to shareholders who seek improvements out of the company. Consumers are always looking for new forms of entertainment, through its product offerings, Electronic Arts is able to provide valuable experiences worldwide.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Electronic Arts stock has seen a consistent uptrend in the last few months. The stock is now trading at highs for the year but is bumping-up against a long-term selling zone where it may spend some time. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Electronic Arts is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

EA

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Electronic Arts options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Electronic Arts Options

31.27%

0%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

August Options

Flat

Average

September Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Electronic Arts’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Electronic Arts look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-2.44%

-7.89%

75.81%

-17.48%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-48.17%

-11.62%

-13.10%

-0.56%

Earnings Reaction

7.37%*

17.11%

4.31%

9.15%

Electronic Arts has seen decreasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been optimistic about Electronic Arts’s recent earnings announcements.

* As of this writing

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Electronic Arts stock done relative to its peers, Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), and sector?

Electronic Arts

Activision Blizzard

Facebook

Apple

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

78.24%

44.16%

-1.31%

-17.03%

24.85%

Electronic Arts has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Electronic Arts provides gaming experiences that have sat very well with consumers worldwide. A recent positive earnings report has investors in the company happy. The stock has been steadily rising and is now trading at highs for the year. Over the last four quarters, investors in the company have been optimistic, although, earnings and revenue figures have decreased. Relative to its peers and sector, Electronic Arts is a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Electronic Arts to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Should Nintendo Bring Super Mario to the iPhone?

Nintendo has seen its fortunes sag across the past four years. Between its fiscal 2009 and 2013, sales dropped an astounding 64%. The company has banked its future on its new Wii U console, but early results haven't been promising. Last quarter the Wii U sold just a depressingly low 160,000 units. 

The following slideshow looks at Nintendo's current predicament and the pros and cons of the company moving some of its classic games and franchises to new sales channels like Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) App Store. With over 50 billion downloads, that's a huge opportunity. However, Nintendo also fears releasing games on the app store could endanger its strength in mobile gaming. With the DS having shipped more than 150 million units, that's a very real concern. 

To see a full run-down of Nintendo's smartphone predicament, check out the slideshow below. Also, if you're looking for more information on investing in mobile, check out our newest report named "Apple Will Destroy its Greatest Product." Can Apple really disrupt its own iPhones and iPads? Find out by clicking here, its free!

Mario ontheiphone from The Motley Fool

Monday, December 23, 2013

Go for International Growth With This MLP

Buckeye Partners (NYSE: BPL  ) is one of the more unique master limited partnerships in the business. Its pipeline and terminal business is solely focused on transporting and storing petroleum products. Even more unique to Buckeye is its international pipeline and terminal business which provided 23.6% of the company's adjusted EBITDA last year. That segment, which we'll take a closer look at, should grow to become a much larger portion of its income given the exceptional opportunities it has to grow. 

The Bahamas
By far the crown jewel, not just internationally, but among all its operations, is the BORCO Marine Terminal in the Bahamas. The terminal currently has about 25 million barrels of storage capacity which, for perspective, is more than half of the capacity of the company's entire domestic operations. If market conditions persist, the company has room to double BORCO's capacity, which would significantly add to Buckeye's future profits.

Source: Buckeye Partner's Investor Presentation

BORCO was acquired in 2011 for $1.7 billion and has seen another $340 million in capital investments since then. That capital investment is expected to bring about 4.7 million barrels of additional capacity by the end of this year. The best part of all is that BORCO is a great cash flow asset as 80.4% of its revenue is locked in by take-or-pay contracts. This takes away some of the volatility that's traditionally found when investing internationally. 

Puerto Rico
Buckeye's other major international asset is its Yabucoa terminal, which it bought in 2010 for $32.6 million. The facility has 4.6 million barrels of storage capacity which is secured by long-term fee-based revenues under a multi-year commitment from Shell (NYSE: RDS-A  ) . This terminal, like many that it has acquired domestically, was better suited in Buckeye's MLP structure than to continue under Shell's banner. One of the reasons is that this asset, like BORCO, has a strong strategic location which enables its growth to come from regional opportunities, including jet fuel and crude oil storage. This makes it a solid cash flow asset for Buckeye, even if it doesn't possess the same growth potential as BORCO. 

Where's the growth
As I mentioned previously, the BORCO Terminal has significant opportunities for future growth. The big reason for this is its strategic location in the Caribbean with two big catalysts on the horizon. First, the advanced marine infrastructure at the facility is able to handle the vessels that will be headed its way thanks to the expansion of the Panama Canal, which is expected to be complete next year. Further, BORCO's location is prime to benefit from the Latin American crude oil production growth that will need to be blended and staged. If Buckeye is able to capture that growth, it will add additional fee-based revenue, which would add to the company's distributable cash flow. 

Outside of organic growth, it's highly likely that the company will acquire additional assets to grow its international platform. One of the many opportunities could see the company picking up Hess'  (NYSE: HES  )  international terminal assets, which are part of a larger terminal package that Hess is currently marketing for about a billion dollars. If Buckeye could pick up the entire package it would add $100 million in EBITDA to its overall bottom line while boosting its international business by adding up to 24 million barrels of storage capacity.

For a company that does about $150 million in EBITDA each quarter, the asset package could boost that number by 16%. These assets would be a great strategic fit for Buckeye's MLP structure and would fit much better than in Hess' current business model focused on exploration and production. Even if it doesn't acquire these particular assets, if the past is any indication, Buckeye will more than likely acquire storage and terminal assets that fit nicely within its current Caribbean assets. 

Final Foolish thoughts
In my option, Buckeye's international operations are what sets the company up for great future growth. Not only will BORCO continue to expand, but Buckeye has the financial capacity to continue acquiring similar assets. These assets are great suppliers of distributable cash flow to help support its nearly 6% distribution. Even better, as these assets grow, it will support future distribution growth. 

Not only that but Buckeye will be a big beneficiary as oil prices stay elevated. It's not the only company that will benefit so, if you're on the lookout for some currently intriguing energy plays, check out The Motley Fool's "3 Stocks for $100 Oil." For FREE access to this special report, simply click here now.

Is Wells Fargo Still the Best Bank in the Business?

Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) will release its quarterly earnings report on Friday, and some investors are already concerned about the potential for a disappointment. With mortgage rates having risen sharply in recent weeks, the banking giant is facing a likely decline in refinancing activity, and a drop in new purchase mortgages could be right around the corner, choking off a vital source of earnings for Wells Fargo.

Still, Wells Fargo has put together a good track record of holding its own even in tough economic conditions. Shareholders seem optimistic as the stock has performed quite well lately. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Wells Fargo over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on Wells Fargo

Analyst EPS Estimate

$0.92

Change From Year-Ago EPS

12%

Revenue Estimate

$21.20 billion

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

(0.4%)

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

4

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Can Wells Fargo keep its earnings-beat streak alive?
Analysts have raised their views on Wells Fargo's earnings in recent months, kicking up their June-quarter estimates by a penny per share and raising their full-year 2013 consensus by more than a nickel per share. The stock has also performed admirably, with gains of about 15% since early April.

One big reason Wells Fargo's stock has done so well is that the bank has managed to keep its fundamentals strong. In April, the company reported record quarterly net income with total loan growth coming in at 4.2% because of increased activity in the commercial lending space. Deposits were also higher, and the bank has done a good job of keeping its capital ratios high in the face of Fed stress tests and regulatory scrutiny.

Still, flagging mortgage activity could prove to be problematic for Wells Fargo. Last quarter, mortgage originations fell by 16%, and the big rise in rates could push those levels downward even further. Yet Wells has a big advantage over Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) in that it has seen delinquency rates and foreclosure ratios that are much lower than those of its competitors. B of A's delinquency rate was about double that of Wells Fargo, and Wells came in more than 30% lower than JPMorgan's delinquency rate. Loan quality should be able to help Wells weather the mortgage storm better than its rivals.

Wells Fargo is arguably better prepared to handle changing conditions in the industry, which has also helped push its stock higher. For instance, it's better positioned against the rising tide of regulatory requirements than some of its banking peers, as evidenced by the recent move by the FDIC to raise capital-to-assets ratios from 3% to 5%. Wells comes in at an estimated 7.3% currently, with B of A next among the biggest banks at 5.1%. JPMorgan and Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) both weigh in at 4.5%, missing the new standard and necessitating further capital-raising moves. Moreover, while B of A, JPMorgan, and Citigroup have all suffered big losses in investment securities and other types of income, Wells Fargo has limited the damage by having a much smaller debt portfolio that wasn't as susceptible to rising interest rates.

When Wells Fargo reports earnings, take a close look at how the bank's management team addresses the big surge in mortgage rates recently. With revenue already slated to decline again this quarter, the loss of highly profitable mortgage activity could pose a long-term threat to earnings growth, one that the bank needs to address before it gets out of hand.

Learn more about Wells Fargo and the reason why it stands head and shoulders above its peers by reading our special report, "The Only Big Bank Built to Last." You'll find out why Warren Buffett loves the stock and much more about the banking giant. It's free, so click here to access it now.

Click here to add Wells Fargo to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Could Google Help You Live Forever?

When fellow Fool Brian Stoffel made a pitch last month to buy Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) stock and hold it for life, at least one Big G employee believes that could mean "forever."

If you think Google's self-driving cars and augmented reality glasses are cool, how does immortality sound?

The Edison of our time
Last December, Google hired one Ray Kurzweil to lead a variety of unique projects revolving around machine learning and language processing techniques. Kurzweil stated that Google's unique resources are allowing him to pursue his lifelong ambition of perfecting true artificial intelligence.

Of course, this kind of research has obvious applications in Google's wheelhouse, perhaps most notably by improving its core search competencies and peripheral products like its "Google Now" service, which Google made to more effectively compete with Apple's Siri voice assistant.

Google stock, Kurzweil

Ray Kurzweil. Image Source: Wikimedia Commons.

But what does that have to do with living forever?

Last week, Kurzweil appeared as a guest speaker at the second annual Global Future 2045 congress, a meeting of minds founded by Russian entrepreneur Dmitry Itskov, "focused on the discussion of a new evolutionary strategy for humanity aimed at overcoming the 21st century's civilization challenges."

In addition, the congress' website states, "The main science mega-project of the 2045 Initiative aims to create technologies enabling the transfer of a individual's personality to a more advanced non-biological carrier, and extending life, including to the point of immortality."

If you think that sounds a lot like James Cameron's blockbuster movie Avatar... well, you'd be correct.

In fact, Itskov's website at 2045.com doesn't shy away from the term, even providing the following "Avatar Project Milestones" for the initiative:

Google Stock, avatar initiative

Source: 2045.com

However, while Kurzweil's work in artificial intelligence and mapping the human consciousness have obvious applications for such an initiative, Kurzweil also believes medical advances may be able to progress fast enough to offset such a need. He said at the conference:

The life expectancy was 20 1,000 years ago. ... We doubled it in 200 years. This will go into high gear within 10 and 20 years from now, probably less than 15 we will be reaching that tipping point where we add more time than has gone by because of scientific progress. Somewhere between 10 and 20 years, there is going to be tremendous transformation of health and medicine.

Of course, that's nothing particularly new; Kurzweil said something to that effect to The New York Times in January, then reiterated his stance to The Wall Street Journal  again in April.

This time, however, Kurzweil went on to point out people have already made significant progress toward treating diseases and other ailments by approaching biology as an operating system, saying, "There's already fantastic therapies to overcome heart disease, cancer, and every other neurological disease based on this idea of reprogramming the software."

Of course, Kurzweil has never exactly made a habit of thinking small.

In fact, when 65-year-old MIT grad announced he was joining Google in December, he pointed out he was ironically criticized in 1999 when he predicted it would only take a decade before we would see technologies like self-driving cars and mobile phones that could answer our questions.

He also joked recently Google is actually his "first job -- at least for a company [he] didn't start." 

Even so, something tells me Kurzweil wasn't particularly concerned about Google stock options. Prior to joining the company, he was busy writing books, inventing the world's first CCD flat-bed scanner, and creating omni-font optical character recognition. Kurzweil also invented the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition solution, and the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments. 

Along the way, he also picked up a National Medal of Technology, 19 honorary doctorates, awards from three U.S. presidents, and was inducted into the National Inventor's Hall of Fame by the U.S. Patent Office.

Why Google?
So why did Kurzweil join Google? Co-founding CEO Larry Page recruited him after he wrote How to Create a Mind: The Secret of Human Thought Revealed -- a book which focuses on "reverse engineering the brain to understand precisely how it works, and using that knowledge to create even more intelligent machines."

When Kurzweil told Page he wanted to start a company based on those ideas, Page convinced him to do it at Google, he says, because the "resources [he] would need were uniquely at Google."

More specifically, as Kurzweil said in an interview with Singularity Hub in March, he was looking forward to having access to Google-specific technology like its Knowledge Graph, which helps the company tie together more than 700 million different concepts with billions of relationships between them, all in the name of building a search engine which helps you find exactly what you want on the web.

Foolish final thoughts
If Kurzweil has anything to do with it -- and he most certainly does -- you can bet that's only the tip of the iceberg for how Google can apply its massive network of knowledge.

And who knows? A few decades from now, we may still be listening Kurzweil and his Google colleagues make new predictions -- only then they could be telling us how they helped us to live so darned long.

Of course, I'm not saying investors should go out and buy Google stock as a sure-thing immortality bet, but I will admit the mere fact that these sorts of forward-looking, big-picture ideas are even entertained at the search giant in the first place does make Google stock a compelling place for our investing dollars.

It's incredible to think just how much of our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped and molded by just a handful of companies like Google. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks?" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged by the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.