Forex Bullet Proof: You Can Win With Forex

Many times, people will hesitate to go into forex trading because traditionally, it carries a lot of risk. True, there is a lot of software that will give you all the information and even do your trades for you, but hesitation continues to exists because people still lose money using this kind of software. Forex Bullet Proof though, comes with a difference. It is a guarantee that if you put x amount of money in, you will get x+1 at the very least.

You can call it automated money making. Its main difference from all others is that it has automatic adjustment to avoid losses. Most of the time in forex trading, you have to be on the look-out, to see how the market is doing and if things look like they are going to take a plunge, you then have to make adjustments yourself. The problem is, you’re not even sure if you’re making adjustments in the right direction. You are simply moving to avoid oncoming risk. With Forex Bullet proof, you don’t have to worry about that any more. It works just like a broker, only for a one time fee and much faster. Immediately there are changes in the market, it will cut your lot size and reallocate to where there are gains and then return the lots once the market is back to normal.

It operates in the major currencies, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, and because the spreads on these currencies are usually low because of their popularity, it always works to the user’s advantage.

Its easy to install, it will never give you a margin call, it works during market hours and not between them as most other forex robots do and it requires a low initial investment – all you need is about $450. It’s also easy to set up, and you get great support from the software manufacturers.

Forex Bullet Proof will cost you $147, and for that you will get the handbook on how it works, tips and lessons on the best way to trade as well as video tutorials. What’s the proof that it works? If you buy it and it doesn’t make you a dime in 60 days, all you need to do is ask for your refund, and no questions asked, you will get your money back. Who said it’s not easy to get rich?

Diamond Kiang is a professional products reviewer, who has spent the last 3 years of his life reviewing top products in the market. He works with top product creators to reveal the best products to global the internet market.

LIVE CHAT: The Collapse of the Euro

Will Europe emerge from its economic crisis? Is the euro currency about to collapse? And how can individual investors safeguard their portfolios from the crisis?

Join renowned international affairs expert Niall Ferguson of Harvard University and Jeff Fischer of Motley Fool Pro today from 1:30 to 3 p.m. ET. They'll be live, answering your questions about the ongoing crisis in the eurozone, including relevant investment strategies. (Alex Pape, a Motley Fool analyst, will moderate the discussion.)

Just click below and join the chat with your thoughts and questions.

Motley Fool Pro Live Chat

About the speakers:

Niall Ferguson is Laurence A. Tisch professor of history at Harvard University. He is also a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior research fellow at Jesus College, Oxford. In 2004 Time magazine named Niall Ferguson one of the 100 most influential people in the world. His most recent book is Civilization: The West and the Rest (2011).

Jeff Fischer runs Motley Fool Options and Motley Fool Pro. He focuses on options and other alternative investment strategies to minimize risk and generate absolute returns. To see Jeff Fischer's complete euro investment strategy for free, simply drop your name in the box below.

Millennial Media’s IPO Nearly Doubles

Capitalizing on the surging market for mobile apps, Millennial Media (NYSE:MM) launched its IPO today. And it was a rocket — the shares almost doubled, giving it a market cap of close to $1 billion.

Millennial Media is the No. 2 mobile ad network in the US. The top player is Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), and the No 3. operator is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).

Growth has been sizzling for Millennial Media. From 2010 to 2011, revenues went from $47.8 million to $103.7 million. In fact, the net loss was a mere $287,000.

Millennial Media�s technology works across a broad array of mobile devices and operating systems, such as from Apple, Google, Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). The company has a software development kit that makes it easy to add advertising units in apps. It also offers extensive analytics.

Customers include marquee names like Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Disney (NYSE:DIS) and Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA). Even Rovio�s Angry Birds uses the Millennial Media platform.

Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog�IPO Playbook, a site dedicated to the hottest news and rumors about initial public offerings. He also is the author of��The Complete M&A Handbook,”��All About Short Selling��and��All About Commodities.��Follow him on Twitter at�@ttaulli�or reach him via�email. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

The Problem With Gold ... And The Opportunity For You

Of all of the commodities on the board, there is none more emotionally charged than gold. People buy a contract of sugar because demand is high and/or supply is low and they think that will pull prices higher. People buy a contract of gold for many, many, many different reasons. And rarely is it directly related to supply and demand.

For that reason, gold (and to a lesser extent, it's cousin silver) have to be approached differently than other commodities when selling options.

The problem with gold is, it doesn't trade like other commodities. People buy and sell gold because of fear. They use it as a way to voice political opinions or personal beliefs. They trade it in reaction to Fed announcements or economic reports. In fact, you can view gold as a market that accurately reflects the overall emotions of the investment community.

Gold is likely the most emotionally-driven commodity on the board.

If you are selling puts or calls in the soybean market, you look at the supply/demand report for soybeans. Not so in gold.

Gold is a much more Macro market. So, when trading gold, the bigger picture is what is most important.

Nonetheless, if you are selling commodities options, I do recommend that you not overlook the premium available in precious metals. Different does not mean bad. It is an excellent diversifier and is uncorrelated to most other commodities. Furthermore, the huge public interest in gold makes the options not only very liquid, but often overpriced.

Remember, one of the key lessons of "The Complete Guide to Option Selling": When the public gets heavily involved, there are opportunities to take their money. I hope that doesn't sound heartless, but commodities are a zero sum game. For every winner, there is a loser. If you're going to play, you might as well not be shy about winning.

Gold: The Long Story Made Short

There are entire books written on trading gold, so we are not going to attempt to outline all of the factors that could affect gold prices in the next 90 days.

However, the short story is this:

The latest Comments from this week's FOMC meetings took a more bullish tone towards the US economy and a more cautious tone towards inflation. This in turn, makes it less likely that any type of "QE3" program (Money Printing) will happen any time soon. The Fed went as far as to say that fiscal tightening may even begin to occur in 2013. Easing, currency printing, and other tools to spur economic growth are bullish for gold. The more dollars printed means it takes more of them to buy an ounce of gold (the commodity most directly linked to currency fluctuations). This is why gold has been rallying for several years now. Consequently, a more upbeat outlook for the economy means less or none these tools being used. This is bearish for gold and the reason prices fell last week.

August 2012 Gold

Time to sell calls or is strangling the better strategy?

Sell it all? Not so Fast

So sell the still grossly inflated calls right? Yes, maybe. But that might not be your best overall play.

The strange thing about this economic and stock market recovery is, few people seem willing to buy into it all the way. Despite what the monthly numbers are saying, despite the raging bull market in stocks, the tone in the investment world remains one of wariness. Perhaps it's what we've all witnessed in the markets over the last 4 years. Perhaps it is all of those number crunchers out there telling us that Europe and the US are merely using smoke and mirrors to delay an inevitable crash. Perhaps, it is a vague feeling of distrust from the investment class of the current administration in Washington.

Either way, don't expect investors to begin dumping their gold in mass just because the Fed got a little more upbeat on the economy. Prices have to adjust to a lowered expectation of QE3. But there is still too much angst out there to expect gold prices to plummet in the longer term.

Conclusion and Strategy

For those of you who watch our video updates on the blog, this might sound like a broken record. However, selling deep out of the money strangles in gold continues to be one of the strategies I would recommend to an option seller. We've been writing these for clients for months and I continue to see opportunity there, especially after this week's price adjustment. I continue to see the gold market as one of those wells from which option writers can bucket premium over at least the next 30-60 days.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Flat Consumer Spending and Declining Factory Orders Point to Slower Economic Recovery

Consumer spending in the United Sates was flat in June and personal savings were the highest in a year, underscoring how unemployment continues to hamstring the U.S. economic recovery.

Separately, U.S. factory orders fell by more than expected in June from May, and pending home sales continued to plunge as the expiration of a government subsidy for first-time homebuyers depressed housing market activity.

Taken together with the gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter, the latest string of reports shows a U.S. economy that is drawing closer to a double-dip recession.

"Consumers are still a bit cautious," Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James Financial, Inc. (NYSE: RJF) in St. Petersburg, Florida told Bloomberg News. "The biggest driver for spending is going to be jobs. You need stronger economic growth to generate job growth."

The economy is slowly crawling out of the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression. Although GDP has expanded for four straight quarters, the recovery has been anemic by historical standards, making little impact on stubbornly high unemployment.

In turn, the high unemployment rate has taken a toll on consumer purchases and continues to weigh heavily on the recovery.

The unchanged reading on household purchases, which account for about 70% of the economy, followed a 0.1% gain in May that was smaller than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday (Tuesday). Incomes didn't increase for the first time since September and the savings rate rose to a one-year high.

Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expected to see a 0.1% increase in spending and a 0.2% rise in income for June. Some analysts said they expected a weak personal income figure in part because of the expiration of federal unemployment benefits in early June. Congress extended the benefits program last month, but the impact won't be seen until future reports.

New orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell by 1.2% in June to $406.41 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The decline was led by a slump in orders for construction machinery, which fell 23.2% from May, and in defense communications equipment, down 41%.

This marks the second consecutive decline in orders. New orders for manufactured goods fell by 1.8%, more than the previously reported 1.4% decline for that month.

Despite previous signs of improvement in economic conditions, some indicators now point to a possible slow-down in the second half of this year as consumers spend less and unemployment remains at 9.5%. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% in period of April to June, compared with a more robust 3.7% in the first quarter of 2010.

"We have a considerable way to go to achieve a full recovery in our economy," U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday. Still, "rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth," and consumer spending "seems likely to pick up in coming quarters from its recent modest pace."

Confidence among U.S. consumers fell in July to the lowest level since November, figures from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan showed last week. The group's final sentiment index decreased to 67.8 from 76 in June. The index has averaged 84.5 over the past decade.

Some U.S. companies say they're experiencing a downturn in household purchases, even for necessities.

"We see huge increases in coupon usage across our enterprise," Craig Herkert the CEO of SuperValu Inc., operator of the Albertson's grocery-store chain, said on a conference call July 27. He added that fiscal first-quarter food sales fell compared with a year earlier and consumers purchased fewer items per basket.

News & Related Story Links:

• Bloomberg: U.S. Economy: Consumer Spending Stagnates, Home Sales Retreat
  
• Reuters:
  US consumer spending and incomes stagnate
  
• Wall Street Journal:
  Spending, Income Flat in June
  
• Money Morning:
  Money Morning Midyear Forecast: The U.S. Economy is Headed For a Second-Half Slowdown
  
• Money Morning: How to Profit From a Slowing U.S. Economy In the Second Half of 2010

Top Stocks For 4/19/2012-16

Dr Stock Pick HOT News & Alerts!

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Tuesday November 17, 2009

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CVAT, Cavitation Technologies Inc, CVAT.OB

CTI Enters Into Strategic Alliance With Agri Process Innovations, Inc. for CTI Nano-Cavitation Process Systems.

Cavitation Technologies, Inc. (CTI); (OTCBB: CVAT) is a �Green-Tech� company, established in 2006 to become a world leader in the development of new cutting edge technologies for the vegetable oil refining, renewable fuel, petroleum, water treatment, wastewater sanitation, food and beverage, and chemical industries.

CVAT signed Agri Process Innovations, Inc. (�API�) (www.apinnovations.com) as a new Strategic partner to supply equipment, systems and expertise which compliment CTI�s product offerings and know how. API is a leading provider of small and medium size renewable fuels plants.

According to Kirk Wiggins, CTI’s Director of Sales and Business Development, “We are very pleased to be working with API, Mike Shook and Steven Danforth Principals. Mike and Steve both have a wealth of knowledge and experience that will make CTI even stronger than before. Mr. Shook has stated, “We agree that our two companies will find many areas where we can work together for our mutual success and we are very pleased to work with CTI.”

Mr. Wiggins further stated, “The exciting thing about CTI is the diverse applications of our technologies. All of our applications are in industries where there are significant environmental problems and/or a need to reduce costs and improve profitability. We are working on projects and technologies for renewable fuels, petroleum, water desalination, wastewater treatment, food and beverage, chemical industries”. API has experience in many of these areas and we expect that we will be very successful working with them.

Roman Gordon, CTI CEO, stated, “We have many companies wanting to represent us but we are very selective.” After discussions with Mr. Shook, we are now very confident that we will do many good things together.” “We are pleased to be on the same team”.

Contact:
Cavitation Technologies
(818) 718-0905
info@cavitationtechnologies.com
IR@cavitationtechnologies.com

More about CVAT at www.cavitationtechnologies.com

Jobs, consumer data to take back focus

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

As the first two weeks of earnings reports appear to set the tone for the rest of the season, investors will turn their attention back to economic indicators. See full story.

Mexico, Canada put your stock portfolio on the map

Investors looking for direction from the U.S. stock market may want to gaze north and south � to Canada and Mexico � for cheaper and better opportunities. See full story.

Mexico, Canada put your stock portfolio on the map

Investors looking for direction from the U.S. stock market may want to gaze north and south � to Canada and Mexico � for cheaper and better opportunities. See full story.

2013 Dodge Dart

Dodge revives a venerable badge, and the new Dart makes an excellent first impression, writes Ron Amadon. See full story.

2013 Dodge Dart

Dodge revives a venerable badge, and the new Dart makes an excellent first impression, writes Ron Amadon. See full story.

MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY

Instead of acknowledging that banks have become a part of government, we keep pretending they are private institutions, writes David Weidner. See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

Home prices in a majority of the markets covered in Zillow�s Home Value Forecast are set to bottom this year � if they haven�t already, according to a Zillow report released on Wednesday. See full story.

Is Apple Stock Cheap? Relatively Speaking, Yes

By Dan Burrows, BNet

Apple (AAPL), the hottest stock on the planet -- LinkedIn's IPO notwithstanding -- is an overhyped tech stock, right? Actually, by relative valuation measures, data suggest it's cheap.

Ordinarily index investors needn't concern themselves with an individual stock's valuation. That is to say, if a stock looks cheap by price/earnings ratio (PE) and likely to go higher, or too expensive and therefore bound for a fall.But Apple accounts for huge chunk of some very popular ETFs and so we thought we'd give it greater scrutiny.

Even after rebalancing by the Nasdaq, Apple will still account for 12% of assets (down from 20%) of the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ). Apple is also the largest holding of the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Fund ETF (IYW), accounting for about 14 percent of the fund's assets, according to the latest data. And at the Internet Architecture HOLDRs (IAH), Apple makes up 23 percent of the portfolio. Not that you would actually own the Internet Architecture HOLDRs.

Since Apple has so much sway in those ETFs, we thought we'd take a look at some relative valuations measures -- all of which suggest the stock is a bargain.

For the rest of this article, click here.

Get info on stocks mentioned in this article:

• AAPL
• IAH
• IYW
• Manage Your Portfolio

NYSE active after CEO comments; financials slip

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) � Shares of NYSE Euronext climbed 3% to top the S&P 500 index�s gainers, bucking a Friday pullback for the financial sector after the exchange operator�s CEO sketched out an optimistic future.

�I�m still glad we tried the Deutsche Boerse merger,� said Chief Executive Duncan Niederauer on a conference call with analysts. Germany�s Deutsche Boerse DE:DB1 �DBOEF �and NYSE Euronext NYX �formally scapped what would have been a transatlantic merger last week.

Niederauer also detailed a two-year action plan to generate earnings growth.

Click to Play Europe next week: Greece, earnings

Greece�s parliament is slated to vote Sunday, and euro-zone finance ministers will meet on Wednesday to officially sign off on a propsective bailout deal for the debt-ridden country. Nestle, BNP Paribas and SocGen will report earnings.

Earlier, the company reported that fourth-quarter earnings fell to $110 million from $135 million a year earlier, hit by merger expenses and a tax settlement charge. Quarterly revenue rose to $628 million from $613 million. Read full coverage of the NYSE, on MarketWatch

In the broader financial sector, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF XLF , which tracks the financial stocks in the S&P 500 SPX , shed 1%.

Among the financial stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA , all four � Bank of America Corp. BAC �, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM �, American Express Co. AXP �and Travelers Cos. TRV �� fell.

New Trading Target for SLV

iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) — The objective of this investment is to reflect the price of silver owned by the trust, less the trust’s expenses and liabilities. The fund is intended to constitute a simple and cost-effective means of owning silver since the trust holds physical silver bullion.�

For two months, silver has been consolidating. But on July 13, it successfully attacked its 50-day moving average, gapping through it, and therefore, successfully establishing a double-bottom with a new target of $46.

• See Sam Collins� Daily Market Outlook: 3 Safe Places to Put Your Money
• See Serge Berger�s Daily Market Outlook: Market Trouble Brewing on the Horizon
• See Serge Berger�s Trade of the Day: This CAT Has More Lives

Solera Holdings Passes This Key Test

There's no foolproof way to know the future for Solera Holdings (NYSE: SLH  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can also suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like Solera Holdings do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is Solera Holdings sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. Solera Holdings' latest average DSO stands at 58.4 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 55.6 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does Solera Holdings look like it might miss it numbers in the next quarter or two?

I don't think so. AR and DSO look healthy. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Solera Holdings' year-over-year revenue grew 16.0%, and its AR grew 18.2%. That looks OK. End-of-quarter DSO increased 1.9% over the prior-year quarter. It was down 7.5% versus the prior quarter. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

What now?
I use this kind of analysis to figure out which investments I need to watch more closely as I hunt the market's best returns. However, some investors actively seek out companies on the wrong side of AR trends in order to sell them short, profiting when they eventually fall. Which way would you play this one? Let us know in the comments below, or keep up with the stocks mentioned in this article by tracking them in our free watchlist service, My Watchlist.

• Add Solera Holdings to My Watchlist.

5 ETF Categories Rocket To New 52-Week Highs

On Thursday, 6/28/2012, Germany’s Angela Merkel seemed to be singing Tom Petty’s iconic tune, “I Won’t Back Down.” By Friday 6/29/2012, many would say that Europe’s most visible leader blinked.

In brief, heads of the 17 euro sovereignties agreed to drop requirements related to aiding Spain’s hapless banks. What’s more, there appears to be agreement with respect to recapitalizing European banks directly with bailout dollars from joint funds.

Naturally, the markets crave virtually any upside surprise from eurozone summits. Of course, a band-aid may stop skin from bleeding, but it cannot cure an infection. Expect more flare-ups out of the region in the months ahead.

What we should embrace, however, is the ability for a wide variety of ETF categories to hit new 52-week highs. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) as well as Vanguard All-World ex U.S. (VEU) are still in correction mode.

1. Non-Cyclical Stock ETFs. There are three big segments of the U.S. economy that are not sensitive to GDP acceleration or deceleration. They include utilities, healthcare and consumer staples. Not surprisingly, then, the prominent stock ETFs for those sectors have hit new 1-year peaks, including Vanguard Utilities (VPU), SPDR Select Consumer Staples (XLP) and SPDR Select Health Care (XLV). And that’s in spite of the recent Supreme Court ruling on the Affordable Health Care Act.

2. High Yield Corporate Bond ETFs. I feel like a broken record on this point. Yet the fact of the matter is, I’ve been touting the attractiveness of the yield spread between diversified high yield corporates and comparable treasuries all year long. Powershares Fundamental High Yield Corporate (PHB), iShares High Yield Corporate (HYG) as well as SPDR Barclay High Yield Bond (JNK) have all registered new 52-week highs. Bullishness for this asset class is indeed justified.

3. Preferred Stock ETFs. Nearly three-fourths of the holdings in preferred stock ETFs are financial companies. It follows that - in previous years - concerns about the well-being of the financial sector tended to drag on the hybrid investment. However, yield seekers now appear comfortable with the risk-reward scenario. Powershares Preferred (PGX), iShares Preferred Stock Fund (PFF) as well as the 100% financial company weighted PowerShares Financial Preferred (PGF) all reached new pinnacles.

4. Emerging Market Bond ETFs. Safety is in the eye of the ETF holder. You can try to pursue a modicum of additional capital appreciation out of a 10-year treasury that yields 1.6%. Or you can pursue a 5.2% annualized yield from diversified emerging market bonds ... where the debt-to-GDP ratio is much lower than the United States. Investors have been snapping up PowerShares Emerging Market Sovereign (PCY), iShares JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond (EMB) and iShares Emerging Market Corporate (CEMB), all of which are at the top end of their 1-year range.

5. Dividend ETFs. With the exception of the non-cyclicals that are primarily geared toward safer price appreciation, four out of the five categories share a similar feature - that is, they each have historically attractive yield spreads with comparable U.S. treasury bonds. Throughout the May-June stock swoon, funds like iShares High Dividend Equity (HDV), First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders (FDL) and the dividend-weighted WisdomTree Equity Income Fund (DHS) have been notching new highs. (Note: And each has at least 2x the annual yield of the 10-year treasury.)

I would never suggest that any investor “buy-n-hold-n-forget” when owning one or more of the above-mentioned assets. You need to have a plan for when and how to sell. Nevertheless, if you’re looking for asset classes that have consistently held up in a topsy-turvy 2012, these five categories have been beneficial to my clients.

Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.

Most of Health Law Survives; Stocks Swing Big on News

SCOTUS has spoken on the Affordable Care Act, and the decision is already causing health care stocks to move.

The Supreme Court upheld the vast majority of the law, including the individual mandate, the requirement that nearly all Americans obtain health insurance by 2014 or pay a penalty. Chief Justice John Roberts voted with the Court’s more left-wing members to uphold the majority of the act. The mandate can be considered a tax, said Roberts, and falls within Congress’ authority to levy taxes. The court said Congress can’t cut existing Medicaid funds to states that don’t comply with the law’s provisions — that appears to be the most significant challenge to the law in the opinion.

Health care stocks swung on the news.

Trading was briefly halted for both Wellpoint (WLP) and Humana (HUM) shortly after the ruling with both stocks down big. Health insurers face new rules in the law — including penalties if they spend less than 80% of their premiums on health costs, and it’s unclear how much they will benefit from new state-run insurance exchanges that will give people more options for buying insurance. Companies that offer Medicaid plans like Molina Healthcare (MOH), however, are soaring, as the law is expected to expand Medicaid rolls.

Big drug companies like Pfizer (PFE) are down — the new law will cost them in fees and rebates even though it could help them as more insured people can get drugs.

Trading was also halted for hospital operator Community Health Systems (CYH) with shares up about 9%. Tenet Healthcare (THC) shares were also halted with the stock up more than 10%. Hospitals were expected to benefit from the law being upheld as they will have to deal with less uncompensated care and may get more patients.

Futures Slide; Banks Fall Hard on JPM, Barclays News

Stock futures fell early on Thursday ahead of a busy day full of data releases, a European summit, and a highly anticipated Supreme Court ruling on the Affordable Care Act. The data releases were so far mostly uneventful: The government maintained its first quarter GDP growth estimate at 1.9%, as analysts had expected, and jobless claims of 386,000 were about the same as the prior week.

Dow futures fell 70 points; S&P 500 futures fell 6.3 points.

The big news this morning is in the banking sector. The New York Times is reporting that JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) trading loss in London may rise as high as $9 billion, according to the bank’s own internal estimates. The internal estimates may not jibe with actual trading losses — the bank has already unwound more than half of the trade and may be completely out by the end of the year, The Times reported. That’s presumably ahead of schedule. JPM fell 2.9% in pre-market trading. Other U.S. bank stocks also fell, with Citigroup (C) down 2.6%.

Barclays (BCS) shares are getting pummeled after the bank settled claims it had manipulated interbank lending rates (Libor and Euribor). Its U.S. shares fell more than 11% in pre-market trading. Deutsche Bank (DB), the target of a similar probe, is down 6%.

Family Dollar (FDO) fell 7% after reporting disappointing earnings and margin pressure. Other dollar stores were also falling on the news.

News Corp. (NWSA) announced plans to split into two companies; shares fell 0.7% after rising the previous two days.

Aircraft parts company Curtiss-Wright (CW) fell 7.1% on disappointing earnings.

Sell in May and Go Away? Yes.

Once April rolls around, the seasonal effect of selling-in-May-and-going-away makes its comeback in media. Should an investor follow this adage? Let me break it down. The original academic article written by colleagues of mine, Bouman and Jacobsen (2002), called the seasons effect "The Halloween Indicator."

Their research concludes that for a U.S. portfolio the return between a portfolio that is invested during the summer and a portfolio not invested during earn a very similar return over a long period. However, the portfolio that raised cash during the summer had lower volatility. This research does not take into account the affect of taxes or trading costs. It appears for the average investor it does not make sense to sell in May and try to time a re-entry point. Then you must pay transaction costs, can not defray capital gain taxes, and emotional biases may set in where you buy in at the wrong time or sell and regret it.

I have recently been working on an academic paper that examines this seasonal effect at a deeper level. I have been looking the seasonal effect during different economic environments. For example, during May to August of 2009 the United States was in the midst of a rebound from depressed stock levels. The same for the summer of 2003. Those periods were horrible time to sell in May and go away. However, other periods such as 2004 sell in May and go away worked. I find that investing based on this seasonal effect works only in certain economic environments. If one can identify those environments than one can successfully sell in May and go away.

What cycle or environment are we in now? Based on the Behavioral Finance Investment Advisors (BFIA), we have detected three periods in the past forty years that are similar to today. One of those periods is 2004. Let us take a look at 2004. From the beginning of January to the 3rd week in April the S&P 500 increased over 4%. From the end of April to the beginning of August it fell over 4% and from August to December is increased around 13%. From the beginning of January to April 15th, 2011 the &P 500 is up around 5% similar to the first quarter of 2004.

So far our indicators since November of 2010 have been tracking the 2003-2004 indicators very closely. Take a look at the chart below which plots our indicators for the January - April period for 2004 and 2011.

Figure 1: BFIA Indicators 2004 vs. 2011

It can been seen that they are tracking each other very closely.

The conclusion here is that it is important to identify the investment cycle that we are currently in and then decide whether the seasonal effect applies. Forget all the other noise in the market. Where we are in the cycle is what matters.

Based on our indicators we see a continuation of 2004. Therefore, we suggest to sell in May and go away. For the other two periods that match today's indicator level, the next three months were also down months. However, the U.S. indicator level is at a bullish level, which signifies that there will not be another flash crash. That volatility will not increase to absurd levels as in the flash crash. The market will trend down for three months starting in a week or two, with occasional pops.

What are the ways to play the U.S. stock market in the next three months?

Raise cash to at least 50%. Wait for three months and then re-deploy that cash.

Keep your current portfolio but buy protection for the next three months. This could mean buying inverse ETFs such as ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH) to protect some or all of your portfolio. One may also want to short the European market since the paper above suggests that the seasonal effect is strongest in Europe. One can either short an European ETF such as iShares S&P Europe 350 (IEV) or buy an inverse ETF such as ProShares UltraShort MSCI Europe (EPV).

Long volatility by buying a call on the VIX or buying iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX). Currently the VIX is around 15, below its long-term average. However, I suggest against this since our indicators suggest the next three months will not be very volatile but more of a slow downward trend. The market could trend down with the VIX not increasing by very much or at all.

To conclude, it matters where we are in the investment cycle, and our research indicates that the next several months will be down months.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

First Solar Q4 Financials, 2012 Guidance: Challenges Ahead

By Eric Wesoff

First Solar (FSLR) is the largest solar module firm by market capitalization, the largest thin-film solar firm, and one of the largest solar firms by capacity and shipments, and certainly by cumulative profits. The company is in the cross hairs of every other solar firm and continues to set the bar in terms of solar panel value and corporate performance.

But times are hard.

CEO Mike Ahearn said the firm’s "quarter was impacted by an aggressive competitive environment, an uncertain regulatory environment, warranty-related charges, and restructuring costs incurred to help position our business for the future."

The firm has announced its fourth quarter and 2011 full-year financials. Here are the highlights:

• Given the adverse market conditions, First Solar is putting its Mesa, Arizona production facility on hold indefinitely.
• Fourth-quarter production was 540 megawatts with net sales of $660 million, down from $1 billion last quarter.
• Net sales were $2.8 billion for 2011.
• First Solar is addressing a product failure issue which will cost hundreds of millions beyond its product warranty. The CEO, Mike Ahearn, referred to the product failure as a manufacturing excursion.
• Average conversion efficiency improved by 0.6% over the course of the year to an average of 12.2% - an encouraging number.
• In January of this year, the first 30-megawatt block of the Agua Caliente project was energized.
• Average module manufacturing cost was reduced to $0.73 per watt, down $0.02 from the fourth quarter of 2010.
• The company's project pipeline is now 2.7 gigawatts AC.

First Solar's updated 2012 guidance:

• Net sales reduced from $3.7 billion to $4.0 billion to $3.5 billion to $3.8 billion;

The management also noted during the conference call that the manufacturing utilization rate in the EU will be at only 60% to 70%, necessitating the closure of four production lines at the Frankfurt Oder plant. On the positive side, the company expects capacity per line to increase to 90 megawatts per line in 2014.

Deutsche Bank forecasted fourth quarter revenues of $751 million, module shipments of 535 megawatts and gross margins of 57.5%. Deutsche Bank sees strong momentum in India, but expressed concern over First Solar's backlog.

Click to enlarge

India Markets Thursday Wrap-Up: Banks, Autos Snap Winning Streak

With any concerted effort toward breaking into the positive absent in the closing stages, benchmark indices in the Indian stock market closed the day in the negative. In the process, it also put an end to the two-day winning streak. Thus, the BSE-Sensex closed lower by around 115 points while losses on the NSE-Nifty came in at around 40 points. BSE Midcap and BSE Small-Cap indices were not spared either as both of them lost in the region of 0.7% today. On the Sensex, two stocks declined for every one that closed the day in the positive. Banking and auto heavyweights in particular exerted the maximum pressure on the index.

While most Asian stocks closed lower today, Europe too was trading in the red. The rupee was trading at Rs 45 to the dollar at the time of writing.

Titan Industries, one of India's largest watch and jewelery makers, is looking to merge with one of its wholly owned subsidiaries, Titan Properties. This would be pursuant to a scheme of amalgamation filed with the Madras High Court. Titan Properties has achieved the objectives for which it was formed and has decided against undertaking further development activities and this is the reason it now wants to merge itself with the parent company. It should be noted that the company was incorporated to develop a township near Hosur for the employees of Titan Industries. Titan has a factory at Hosur that manufactures jewelery for Tanishq. If successful, this would be the second merger in a short span of time for the company as it merged the jewelery division Tanishq with itself in March this year. The stock of Titan closed flat on the bourses today.

Recently, we talked about how cement major ACC was able to post robust sales numbers for the month of May. However, it appears that this buoyancy has not rubbed off on other cement majors in the country. At least not on Ultratech (UCLQF.PK) and Ambuja Cements. As per reports, both these companies have witnessed a drop in despatches for the month of May over the corresponding previous month. While Ultratech's despatches have suffered a fall of 4%, the same for Ambuja have come lower by 6.5%. As a result of this, most of the cement stocks closed weak today. Already, cement realizations are under pressure on account of a widening demand supply gap. With despatches also playing truant, it could well be a double whammy for sector companies.

U.S. is outlier in push to boost IMF resources

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- The global financial system is still on shaky ground and the multinational institution that's tasked with propping it up needs more money. But don't expect the United States to pitch in.

"We need more resources," International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde said in a recent speech.

The IMF, which acts as the United Nations of global finance, is seeking to raise $500 billion to meet an estimated $1 trillion worth of funding needs over the next few years.

The funding issue looms large as finance officials and central bankers from around the world gather this week for the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C. The meeting takes place as the global economy faces renewed risks from the debt crisis in Europe.

Lagarde has repeatedly warned that the global economy remains fragile, despite an improving growth outlook. She has called for policymakers to renew the sense of shared purpose that prevailed during financial crisis, when world leaders agreed to funnel $1.1 trillion into the IMF at a summit in London.

IMF's Lagarde calls for swift action

"This can be our 'Washington moment'," Lagarde said last week.

However, the urgency behind the "London moment," as the 2009 meeting was known, has faded as the global economy recovered. Now, many of the richest members of the 187-nation IMF have shifted focus to domestic issues such as paying down debt and stimulating growth.

For its part, the United States has made it clear that the IMF's biggest shareholder will not be contributing any additional funding. The Americans argue that the IMF has sufficient capital, with $400 billion in available resources.

Eurozone nations, by contrast, have already pledged €150 billion in additional loans to the IMF as part of a plan to boost the region's overall "financial firewall."

In addition, non-eurozone nations Denmark, Norway, Poland, Switzerland and Sweden pledged this week to chip in up to $60 billion. Japan also announced plans this week to provide $60 billion in additional IMF loans.

The IMF uses a quota system to determine how much each member country is obligated to contribute. The United States is by far the biggest donor, contributing nearly 18% to the total, followed by Japan with 6.6% and Germany with 6.1%.

"The IMF does not recieve donations," said Lagarde on Thursday. "We receive loans from members of the IMF who become our creditors, and we only draw on those loans if need be."

She stressed that the money the fund lends out is repaid, with interest. "No country has ever lost money on the IMF."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner defended the U.S. position Wednesday, saying European nations have the financial strength to resolve the euro crisis and the IMF should not be considered a substitute.

The U.S. has contributed to the "broader effort" to address Europe's debt problems, Geithner said, pointing to steps by the Federal Reserve to make more dollars available to European banks struggling to fund themselves.

"It's a mistake to look at this and suggest that the United States is holding back from, or standing apart from, this effort," Geithner said at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Finance officials from the Group of 20 economic powers said earlier this year that eurozone leaders needed to complete their financial firewall before the group would address the issue of IMF funding.

Last month, euro area officials agreed to boost their crisis resources to €700 billion by combining resources from an existing bailout fund with one that goes into effect later this year. The move fell short of the €1 trillion firewall that some analysts say is necessary to ensure that larger euro area economies, such as Italy, are safe from contagion.

"The hope is that these gatherings result in progress in talks to boost the IMF's euro crisis backstop resources," economists at Investec Securities wrote in a report. But a positive outcome is far from assured, "given that the efforts made by euro area authorities to boost their own rescue resources earlier this month risk being taken as half-hearted."

With the world's largest economy ruling out more money, the IMF may turn to emerging economic powerhouses to make up the difference.

China and the U.S.: It's complicated

China is the most important wild card at this week's meeting, according to analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. Beijing is expected to contribute about $10 billion to the IMF, which could set the stage for Brazil, Russia and India to make similar commitments, the analysts wrote in a report.

But the so-called BRIC nations will likely use the occasion to push for deeper reforms of the IMF quota system, which would give them a greater role in determining how the fund uses its resources.

"The largest hurdle to an agreement now rests in how to reconcile the desire for the BRICS to tie their increased funding to the IMF to a new round of governance reform," Eurasia analysts said.

Despite this challenge, the IMF is expected to announce $400 billion in additional funding at the end of this week's meeting, according to Eurasia.

-- CNNMoney's Jennifer Liberto contributed to this report. 

Is Marathon Petroleum Poised for a Turnaround?

The refining and marketing industry witnessed mixed results in 2011. For Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC  ) , 2011 didn't turn out to be that great. But I think there is a chance for a turnaround in 2012.

Flashback 2011
The past year saw the company being spun off from Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO  ) , which is now exclusively into upstream activities. Not surprisingly, gross margins played a huge role in the refining industry and I won't be surprised if they continue to play a prominent role in the future.

Despite lower refining volumes, revenues grew thanks to higher refining margins. The crack spread backs that up. A metric that is commonly used in the refining industry, the spread measures the difference between market prices for refined products and crude oil. Higher average spreads ensured that revenues went up despite total refining volumes dropping.

Advantage, Marathon
Marathon's forte lies in processing sour and heavy crude, which makes up 50% of its total refining capacity. Hence, it helped to have West Texas intermediate crude oil trading slightly below light Louisiana sweet crude oil. But what looks exciting right now is the company's Detroit heavy oil upgrade project, which is expected to process an additional 80,000 barrels of heavy crude per day. Fundamentally, this is an excellent move.

Higher gasoline prices have been a norm and I believe this trend should continue. The reason is pretty simple. According to a report by the Energy Information Agency, crude oil is the biggest factor -- a huge 67% -- contributing to what customers are paying at the gas pump. And higher crude oil prices are here to stay. In short, a higher crack spread seems here to stay.

Combining favorable market conditions and better fundamentals should be a winning formula for Marathon. Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO  ) had booked fantastic third-quarter profits by following this simple strategy.

It's screaming cheap
Marathon's stock has lost a little over 10% post-spinoff, and it looks cheap at the moment. With a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of just 4.4, the stock looks much cheaper than Valero at 7.5 and Western Refining (NYSE: WNR  ) at 6.9. Also, Marathon looks sound financially, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 32% and an interest coverage ratio of 115 times. Free cash flow stands at $3.4 billion. That's simply awesome.

Foolish bottom line
Marathon looks poised for a turnaround, and my hunch is that 2012 could be the year. Investors should definitely take a deeper look into the stock. You can start watching this stock by adding it to your watchlist. Meanwhile, if you're looking for more ideas, The Motley Fool has created a new special oil report titled "3 Stocks for $100 Oil," which you can download today, absolutely free. In this report, Fool analysts cover three outstanding oil companies. To get instant access to the names of the three oil stocks, click here -- it's free.

Stem Cell Stocks: Mending Scarred Hearts

A new study at Johns Hopkins University has shown that stem cells from patients' own cardiac tissue can be used to heal scarred tissue after a heart attack. This is certainly exciting news considering heart failure is still the No. 1 cause of death in men and women.

The study included 25 heart attack victims, 17 of whom got the stem cell treatment. Those patients saw a 50% reduction in cardiac scar tissue after one year, while the eight control patients saw no improvement.

The procedure involves removing a tiny portion of heart tissue through a needle, cultivating the stem cells from that tissue, and reinserting them in a second minimally invasive procedure, according to Bloomberg.

"If we can regenerate the whole heart, then the patient would be completely normal," said Eduardo Marban, director of Cedars-Sinai Heart Institute who was the study's lead author. "We haven't fulfilled that yet, but we've gotten rid of half of the injury, and that's a good start."

Business section: Investing ideas
Interested in investing in the promise that stem cell therapy holds? For a look at the investing landscape, we compiled a list of the 10 largest companies involved in stem cell therapy.

Do you think this industry will see growth from stem cell research? (Click here to access free, interactive tools to analyze these ideas.)

1. BioTime (NYSE: BTX  ) : Focuses on regenerative medicine and blood plasma volume expanders. Market cap at $291.95M. The company develops and markets research products in the field of stem cells and regenerative medicine. It develops therapeutic products derived from stem cells for the treatment of retinal and neural degenerative diseases; cardiovascular and blood diseases; therapeutic applications of stem cells to treat orthopedic diseases, injuries, and cancer; and retinal cell product for use in the treatment of age-related macular degeneration.

2. Cleveland BioLabs (Nasdaq: CBLI  ) : Market cap at $111.50M. Its products include Protectan CBLB502, a radioprotectant molecule with multiple medical and defense applications for reducing injury from acute stresses, such as radiation and chemotherapy by mobilizing various natural cell protecting mechanisms, including inhibition of apoptosis, reduction of oxidative damage, and induction of factors that induce protection and regeneration of stem cells in bone marrow and the intestines, and Protectan CBLB612, a modified lipopeptide mycoplasma that acts as a stimulator and mobilizer of hematopoietic stem cells to peripheral blood, providing hematopoietic recovery during chemotherapy and during donor preparation for bone marrow transplantation.

3. Gentium: Focuses on the development and manufacture of its primary product candidate, defibrotide, an investigational drug based on a mixture of single-stranded and double-stranded DNA extracted from pig intestines. Market cap at $128.29M. The company develops defibrotide for the treatment and prevention of hepatic veno-occlusive disease (VOD), a condition that occurs when veins in the liver are blocked as a result of cancer treatments, such as chemotherapy or radiation, that are administered prior to stem cell transplantation.

4. Geron (Nasdaq: GERN  ) : Develops biopharmaceuticals for the treatment of cancer and chronic degenerative diseases, including spinal cord injury, heart failure, and diabetes. Market cap at $265.57M. The company has licensing agreement with the University Campus Suffolk to develop human embryonic stem cell-derived chondrocytes for the treatment of cartilage damage and joint disease.

5. Harvard Bioscience: Develops, manufactures, and markets apparatus and scientific instruments used in life science research in pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, universities, and government laboratories in the United States and internationally. Market cap at $118.28M. Develops devices used by clinicians and researchers in the field of regenerative medicine, including bioreactors for growing tissue and organs outside the body, and injectors for stem cell therapy.

6. Lydall (NYSE: LDL  ) : Designs and manufactures specialty engineered products for thermal/acoustical, filtration/separation, and bio/medical applications in the United States. Market cap at $163.44M. In addition, it offers Cell-Freeze, a medical device used for cryogenic storage of peripheral blood stem cells.

8. Osiris Therapeutics (Nasdaq: OSIR  ) : Focuses on the development and marketing of therapeutic products to treat various medical conditions in the inflammatory, autoimmune, orthopedic, and cardiovascular areas. Market cap at $157.26M. A stem cell company, focuses on the development and marketing of therapeutic products to treat various medical conditions in the inflammatory, autoimmune, orthopedic, and cardiovascular areas.

7. Verastem: Market cap at $229.00M. Focuses on discovering and developing proprietary small molecule drugs targeting cancer stem cells (CSCs) in breast and other cancers.

Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the stocks mentioned above. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.

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Kapitall's Alexander Crawford does not own any of the shares mentioned above.

Can Baidu Save China?

After watching Sohu.com (Nasdaq: SOHU  ) deliver disappointing guidance yesterday, investors in Chinese Internet stocks may be worrying about the sector in general.

What if China's other dot-coms offer equally bleak outlooks? The first quarter has been a seasonally soft time for Chinese Internet companies, but Sohu's guidance called for a sharper sequential dip than what the online portal typically experiences.

Maybe things could have been different had Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU  ) already delivered its quarterly results. Sohu's outlook would still have been gloomy, but a more robust perspective out of China's leading search engine would have outweighed smaller Sohu's guidance.

Baidu is making investors wait this time around. It doesn't report its quarterly results until a week from Thursday.

The Feb. 16 report date isn't unusual. Baidu did report its prior year's fourth-quarter results at the end of January, leading many to assume that it would have reported its financials last week ahead of Sohu. However, it has been mid-February for Baidu's calls every year before that.

The market isn't holding Sohu's performance against Baidu.

"That's the only Chinese stock that I like," Jim Cramer told viewers of last night's Mad Money when asked about Baidu.

Analysts are upbeat about Baidu. They see revenue and earnings climbing 88% and 82%, respectively. Sohu's report will place a greater emphasis on what Baidu has to say about 2012, but -- as we've seen in the U.S. -- paid search and display advertising are two entirely different markets.

SINA (Nasdaq: SINA  ) may have a little more to worry about since it shares Sohu's emphasis on brand advertising. However, the success of SINA's Weibo offers a different growth dynamic at SINA. Perhaps more importantly, SINA has historically not reported until the first week of March. By the time SINA reports nearly a month from now, the market's already thinking about seasonal bounce for the second quarter.

Sohu's disappointing report will make next week's Baidu report more interesting, but it's Baidu that will ultimately be the niche's bellwether.

A bullish call on Baidu has served me well on Motley Fool CAPS over the years. True to the CAPScall initiative, I'm not going to give up on it now. Baidu has soared 1,465% since I recommended it to Rule Breakers newsletter subscribers six years ago, but now it's time to discover the next Rule-Breaking multibagger. It's a free report. Want it? Get it.

Weekly Volatility Tracker: Holiday Season Saw No Point by Point Declines

Volatility Tracker for the Week of January 4, 2010

The traditionally quiet holiday season did not see point-for-point declines in implied volatility. As a result, the distance between recent realized and lagged implied volatility is about as wide as it has been for some time, indicating that options were richly priced over the last thirty days. [5,6] The S&P 500 continues marching along the upper limit of its one standard deviation band. [4] VIX futures are relatively unchanged versus recent weeks. [7]

The violent interruption of the strong trend in gold in early December was simply a reversion to the mean. [11] That correction has rendered gold options fairly priced for the first time in at least six months. [12,13] The daily return distribution over the last three months is still skewed to the upside, [14] but gold may be in for some choppy trading here.

Oil options look slightly overpriced here, [16,17] the technicians will likely be looking for resistance at recent price highs. [15] The histogram of recent returns deserves a look. [18]

Disclosure: No positions

World’s Economic Ills Weigh on America’s Fragile Recovery: News Analysis

Is the global economy just teetering or is it cratering? The U.S. economy has been making modest but steady gains, but hazards in Europe, China and emerging markets have the potential to put that progress in check.

U.S. consumer sentiment has been notably up, household debt ratios have fallen to 1994 levels, inflation is starting to recede and, while unemployment remains stubbornly high, the fear of further job losses seems to have dissipated.

While the status quo is far from ideal, the snail’s pace progress together with the molasses-like GDP growth rate of about 2% seems nearly acceptable in a global economy that seems to be unraveling. Most of the headlines have focused on European disunion, where the leaders never seem to be able to get ahead of a crisis that has spread from Greece to Ireland to Portugal and in 2011 to Spain, Italy and Belgium. What’s more, the vulnerability of French and German banks to toxic sovereign debt and the looming threat to France’s triple-A debt status has already shrunken Europe’s solid core to a Germany governed by a wobbly coalition.

While it is impossible to say what precisely will happen in Europe, it seems reasonable to suppose that Greece and Ireland, the first two economies to go down, point the way. Both are experiencing negative GDP growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) itself, which has every reason to downplay bad news, is forecasting a Eurozone contraction while imploring its member states to make long-delayed structural reforms. It is not inconceivable that the ECB, like Europe’s politicians, is just playing for time with mild statements aimed at maintaining the current level of foreign investment. The Eurozone does not have a good track record in accomplishing sustained structural reforms.

A European implosion in 2012 could damage the United States’ surging export market, one of the U.S. economy’s bright spots. A Milken Institute economist projects that a Eurozone recession triggering a 10% decline in U.S. exports to the region would result in a manageable 2% decline in U.S. exports and a 0.2% hit to U.S. GDP growth. But that projection is based on a mere recession. A cratering of the European economy following a full-fledged banking crisis would naturally have a correspondingly greater effect. Such a crisis seems within the realm of possibility in 2012.

Perhaps a bigger potential hazard for the still fragile U.S. economy involves China. Economists have long debated not so much whether its credit bubble will pop but how hard. Writing this week in the London’s Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the journal’s international business editor, makes the case that China’s hard landing has already begun.  Despite all the double-digit dreams investors have had about China in recent years, its Shanghai stock market has already registered nightmarish returns since its 2008 peak, losing 60%. That matches Wall Street’s Great Depression crash from 1929 to 1933—in one fewer year. And half of that loss has occurred in the past half year.

Evans-Pritchard cites an IMF economist who says loans in China’s credit-bubble economy have grown to 200% of GDP. Compare that to the 50% of GDP level that occurred prior to the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble, or the 50% level that preceded Japan’s late ’80s Nikkei bubble, from which Japan has never fully recovered. That level of debt is starting to adversely affect the Chinese property market—with prices as much as 70% lower in outlying areas and 25% down, reportedly, in one Shanghai development. Chinese official figures report a mere 0.3% decline, but Evans-Pritchard calls this a lagging indicator.

As pain spreads throughout China and double-digit GDP growth begins to contract, China is likely to cease its recent role as the world’s shock absorber as it endeavors to contain its own shocks. The U.S. has been pressuring China for years to allow its currency to appreciate, which it has been doing very slowly. But it is entirely foreseeable that China will now work to devalue its currency, which will cut into U.S. exports and shave off some U.S. GDP growth. (China is now America’s third largest trading partner, after Canada and Mexico.)

Indeed, China’s announcement Wednesday that it would impose anti-dumping duties as high as 12.9% on GM, Chrysler and other U.S.-made autos, following the imposition in 2009 of U.S. duties of as much as 35% on Chinese car and light-truck tires, may signal a run-up of trade wars that will be destructive to each nation’s economy.

A Chinese hard  landing is also bound to adversely affect fast-growing emerging economies, many of whose economies have expanded through increased trade with China.

U.S. investors have cheered positive U.S. economic data with a post-Thanksgiving stock market rally. But already visible perils in two of the world’s major economic centers would seem to have more power to drag down the American economy than a still fragile U.S. has to lift an interdependent global economy.

5 Great Early Spring Break Deals

Spring break! It doesn’t quite translate in text, but that phrase needs to be bellowed at high volume, dragging out each word with winter-weary relish. With the end of February upon us, spring-break season can finally begin in earnest.

As college students, families, and intrepid young couples emerge from the bleary hibernation of the winter months, their eyes and wallets turn toward spring break vacation spots around the world, from open-sea cruises to ski-able mountains to beachfront joys.

Now, of course, is the time for travel agencies, resorts and destinations to begin offering spring break deals in earnest. Here five of 2012′s best early spring break deals around:

    Wyndham Resorts

Wyndham Worldwide Corporation‘s (NYSE:WYN) empire of vacation facilities spans most of the globe, but the company is heavily pushing its Florida properties in anticipation of spring break. The company is offering spring break deals in eight beachfront cities across Florida, including Miami Beach, Orlando and Jacksonville, through March 15. It’s a good option for beer-swilling college partiers and families alike.

    Priceline

Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) goes a step further than a specific locale or parent company in offering spring break deals. It searches its massive database of available deals, then tailors one specifically for users based on their hometowns. The spring break deals are tempting, to say the least. One example: Flights from New York City to Las Vegas, round-trip, are just $250 — and a car rental in Nevada’s most infamous den of excess is just $17 per day.

    Groupon

Daily deals icon Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) is technically always offering significant discounts on a variety of vacations through its Getaways service. It also happens to be an excellent spring break deal resource. For city-loving couples looking to get away, Groupon is offering spectacular selections for March. A perfect example: One night for two adults, including breakfast at Silversmith Hotels in Chicago, is just $109. That promotion ends March 3. Luckily, it will immediately be replaced by another deal.

    Orbitz

Like Priceline, Orbitz (NYSE:OWW) is a portal to all kinds of fantastic spring break deals. Whether you want to go on a Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) cruise or book a Marriott (NYSE:MAR) room in Hawaii, Orbitz can make it happen. The site itself is offering a nice spring break discount itself, too. From Feb. 29 to April 15, Orbitz is offering a $50 coupon on packages that include a round-trip flight and four or more nights at a hotel. $50? That’s at least five drinks wherever you end up.

Disneyland

Technically speaking, there is no time of year that Disney (NYSE:DIS) isn’t running a plethora of promotions to lure consumers to their hugely lucrative theme parks. The original — Disneyland, in Anaheim, Calif. — is running a number of killer spring break deals. These include 30% off nightly rates at Disneyland hotels and up to $40 off regular ticket prices. For families, Disney’s deals are pretty appealing.

As of this writing, Anthony John Agnello did not own a position in any of the stocks named here. Follow him on Twitter at�@ajohnagnello�and�become a fan of�InvestorPlace on Facebook.

Budget War Expected to Rage as Debate Turns to 2012

Now that last week’s budget battle is over, the real fiscal war can—and will—begin in earnest.

Democrats and Republicans both claimed victory in the fiscal year 2011 spending package that they negotiated Friday night. But this week they will go at it again when House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan presents his FY 2012 budget to the full House and President Obama on Wednesday gives a major speech outlining a new package of deficit reduction ideas for his version of the 2012 budget.

Ryan's budget calls for about $5.8 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years, mostly from Medicare, Medicaid and other entitlement programs. Obama, meanwhile, is expected to lay out his plan for reducing the U.S. deficit, an issue that he has avoided until now, leaving the debate over taxes and spending cuts to Congress.

All tax issues originate in the House. The House Budget Committee provides a blueprint for the budget, but it's the House Ways and Means Committee that writes the legislative language. The Ways and Means Committee is involved in all issues involving revenues and taxes, including budget deals.

"Every corner of the federal government has to be looked at here," said David Plouffe, a senior White House advisor, on Sunday in a television appearance, adding that tax increases are on Obama’s docket. "Revenues are going to have to be part of this.”

Obama is expected to propose cuts to entitlement programs, including Medicare and Medicaid, and changes to Social Security, according toThe Wall Street Journal. Obama also will call for tax increases for people making over $250,000 a year, a proposal contained in his 2012 budget, and changing parts of the tax code he thinks benefit the wealthy.

The speech, which will address deficit reduction, is expected to go beyond Obama’s initial FY 2012 budget released in early February, which avoided major entitlement savings.

Also this week, the House and Senate prepare to vote on the FY 2011 spending package agreed to late on Friday night by congressional and White House negotiators. The agreement will pay for government operations through the end of September while trimming $38.5 billion in spending. The plan cuts spending by $78 billion below what Obama first proposed.

Lawmakers on Friday also approved a days-long stopgap measure to keep the government running while the details of the new spending plan were written into legislation.

Republican House Speaker John Boehner warned on Monday that Republicans will not increase the debt limit without addressing underlying fiscal problems.

In an op-ed in USA Today and an interview with Fox News, Boehner challenged Obama to outline a budget blueprint as aggressive as Ryan’s, which seeks to cut $5.7 trillion in federal spending over the next decade.

Boehner pressed for a vote to raise the country’s borrowing limit with other reforms that will cut the deficit and help reduce the debt. He also said that failure to raise the debt ceiling could create turmoil in the markets and have “very serious implications” on the United States’ ability to borrow money.

“There are going to be dozens of these battles over the next 18 months. This is the first one,” Boehner said in the Fox News interview. “We got through this one. The next one will be more difficult.”

House Democrats have announced plans to offer an alternative FY 2012 budget this week.

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad is expected to release his FY 2012 budget in late April or early May, according to Market News International, which noted that Conrad continues to work with a bipartisan group of senators on turning the main elements of the Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan into a bipartisan legislative package.

Read “Deal Is Reached to Avoid Government Shutdown” at AdvisorOne.com.

Stocks inch higher as Greece remains in focus

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks edged higher Wednesday as investors remained focused on Greece, where the government is scrambling to secure more bailout funds and avoid a default.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 6 points, or less than 0.1%, to end at 12,884. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,350. The Nasdaq (COMP) rose 12 points, or 0.4%, 2,916.

Given the lack of U.S. economic data Wednesday, investors continued to monitor developments in Greece, where talks on austerity reforms have been delayed several times this week.

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is meeting with the leaders of the three political parties that make up his interim government. The officials are discussing a draft of proposed spending cuts, including layoffs and pension reforms, that are a precondition for Greece to receive more bailout money.

Greece needs to finalize the program soon to pave the way for a second bailout of €130 billion from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank. Without these funds, Greece could miss a €14.5 billion bond redemption in March.

Finance ministers from the 17 nations that use the euro currency will meet Thursday to discuss the situation in Greece, according to a spokesman for Eurogroup president Jean-Claude Juncker.

Meanwhile, Greece is also negotiating with its creditors in the private sector over a writedown and debt exchange. There were conflicting reports on the ECB's willingness to participate in a restructuring of the Greek bonds it holds.

"Everyone is waiting for Greece to accept the austerity program and move ahead," said Peter Cardillo, market strategist at Rockwell Global Capital. "It's just a question of time."

All hail Caesars! - StockTwits

Cardillo said stocks could pull back once an official agreement is reached. But eliminating the threat of a "disorderly default" will ultimately help the market move higher, he added.

"The market has discounted the fact that Greece is headed for an orderly default, which takes the pressure off the euro and diminishes the fear factor," said Cardillo.

U.S. stocks moved higher Tuesday on optimism about a Greek debt deal.

Companies: Investors continued to tune in to quarterly corporate results on Wednesday.

Following the market's close, Visa (V, Fortune 500) reported better-than-expected earnings of $1.45 per share for the first quarter. The company said revenue rose 14% to $2.5 billion on strong sales in its services, data processing and overseas operations.

Dow stock Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) also reported quarterly earnings after the close. The company earned 47 cents per share, topping analysts' expectations, on sales of $11.5 billion.

Groupon (GRPN) shares fell in extended trading after the daily deals site reported quarterly results that missed expectations.

Sprint Nextel (S, Fortune 500) reported a steep loss for the fourth quarter, shedding $1.3 billion, or 43 cents per share, which was even worse than its year-earlier loss of $929 million, or 31 cents per share. The company blamed the sales expense from its launch of the iPhone.

CNNMoney parent company Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500) beat expectations on earnings and revenue. The media company reported fourth-quarter adjusted net income of $946 million, or 94 cents per share, an increase from the prior-year figure of $754 million, of 65 cents per share.

Time Warner also raised its dividend by 11% and announced a 4 billion share buyback.

CVS Caremark (CVS, Fortune 500) said that its revenue jumped 11% to a record $107 billion and its adjusted earnings rose 6% to $2.80 per share.

Which brokerage will be the next to fall?

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) said its same-store sales jumped 9% in the fourth quarter, contributing to a 35% revenue boost, to $220 million, and a 34% surge in net earnings, to $13.6 million.

Western Union (WU, Fortune 500) reported an increase in fourth-quarter revenue of 5% to $1.4 billion. The 160-year-old money-sending company said that earnings rose 40 cents excluding a tax benefit, compared to 37 cents in the year-earlier quarter.

Polo Ralph Lauren (RL, Fortune 500) reported its most recent quarterly earnings, showing a 12% surge in same-store sales and a 17% jump in revenue to $1.8 billion compared to the year-earlier quarter.

Late Tuesday, Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) announced that four longtime board members, including the chairman, are leaving the company. The departures stemmed from board discussions about "why Yahoo! was not meeting either our own expectations or those of our shareholders," wrote Chairman Roy Bostock in a letter announcing the shakeup -- including his own departure.

Also, Caesars Entertainment (CZR), a casino entertainment provider, rose 71% in its first day of Nasdaq trading after raising $16 million through an initial public offering.

World markets: European stocks closed modestly higher. The DAX (DAX) in Germany added 0.2% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) gained 0.4%. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ended little changed.

Asian markets ended with solid gains. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) spiked 2.4%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong increased 1.5% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) rose 1.1%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar was slightly higher against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for March delivery rose 30 cents to end at $98.71 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery fell $17.10 to $1,731.30 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 1.98% from 1.97% late Tuesday.  

Forget the Innovators, Buy This Well-Funded Copycat Instead

The business world is full of examples of innovators being left in the dust by imitators. Think Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) was the first company to think of the tablet PC? Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) first developed the idea a decade prior to the advent of the iPad. Think Mark Zuckerberg came up with the idea for Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) all on his own? As anyone who's seen The Social Network (the movie loosely based on Facebook's early days) can tell you, that isn't quite the case.

The point is, many, many times, the person or company who is first to the market with a new concept doesn't even approach obtaining the full value of the idea. In fact, many creative innovative companies fail, whereas the companies that copy the idea go onto great success.

 

In other words, being first to market isn't a criterion to successfully implementing the service, idea or product. Often it is the second or third generation of the innovation that changes the industry forever. Steve Jobs understood this. So did Mark Zukerberg and countless others before him.

It appears that this phenomenon of a copy cat company beating the innovator may be starting to play out in the highly competitive automobile rental industry.

There is no question that the traditional car rental model is outdated, cumbersome and makes things way more difficult for the consumer than they need to be. If you have ever rented a car, you know what a serious pain in the butt it can be. Not only do you have to get to the rental agency to pick up the vehicle, you need to fill out the same contract every time, have a large hold placed on your credit card, basically get interrogated by the rental agent, and return the vehicle to the same location you rented it from or face extra fees and costs.

Sensing this disconnect from what the market demands and the traditional car rental model, an innovative upstart named ZipCar (NYSE: ZIP) launched an on-demand car rental service. This model does not rely on a central location, but rather has cars scattered about in garages, parking lots and basically anywhere one can be squeezed in urban areas. Users pay a one-time membership fee and then are provided access to any of the vehicles in the program, which are then rented by the hour.

This is absolute brilliance, in my book. No more multiple forms to fill out, no more traveling to the rental agency and dealing with snooty clerks, no more being forced to rent for an entire 24-hour period if you only need the vehicle for an hour or two. Basically, ZipCar met the needs of the car-renting public in a way not done by the major rental agencies.

The upstart company has more than 500,000 dues-paying members, and sales grew by 25% last year with analysts calling for a 21% sales increase this year. Sounds great, right? Well, truth be told, ZipCar disappointed the market, plummeting more than 10%, as first quarter metrics showed only modest growth and a revised profit outlook. In addition, the company seems to be losing control of its expansion. Long-time users of the service have told me, in confidence, that the vehicles have become dirtier and sometimes even run-down feeling. Combine this apparent growth struggle with the barrage of upstart competitors in the space, and it paints a not-so-rosy picture for this innovative, original company.

Now, the large, traditional rental chains are getting into the hourly car rental business. This is where ZipCar faces its greatest threat. Hertz (NYSE: HTZ), which dipped its toe into the hourly rental business in 2008, has plans for a massive ramp-up of this division. Named Hertz On Demand, this new service will not require customers to pay an annual membership fee, and has plans to equip its entire U.S. fleet of 375,000 cars with on-demand technology by the middle of 2013.

The size of Hertz's plan dwarfs ZipCar. This type of competition has attracted short sellers to ZipCar's shares, with the number of shares held short increasing by 15% since January. Adding to the questionable outlook for ZipCar, only two major institutions, Greylock XII LLC and Yale University endowment fund, have substantial holdings in the stock. To me, that's a warning flag. Hertz, on the other hand, has 28 institutional holders, with only six decreasing their position size during the last quarter. Obviously, this has something to do with the size and history of the companies, but it still tells a story.

Looking technically at Hertz, shares have sold off during the past 12 days. This is mainly due to profit takers and weaker than expected consumer economic numbers in the United States spooking investors. However, shares remain within my trademarked value buy zone, signalling that the odds favor a long position right now.

Risks to Consider: While Hertz has a proven core business model and is moving into the future with its On Demand service, it will still be affected by competitors and the economy as a whole. Although Hertz appears to have the competitive advantage over any upstart because of its sheer size, other entrenched rental agencies are eyeing the hourly rental market. When Hertz's new roll-out meets success, expect a rapid increase in competition.

> My pull-back system has clearly triggered a buy signal for Hertz. The buy signal stays valid as long as price remains above the 200-day moving average, in the value zone. Should the price drop below the 200-day moving average, my strategy will switch to buying break outs above that level.

3 Stocks With High Short Interest: 2 Buys, 1 Sell

For this short article, I have listed 3 stocks with high short interest. I give a brief summary and analysis, then my opinion whether to buy or sell.

OCZ Technology (OCZ) Current pps: $9.00

OCZ is one of the leaders in the design, manufacturing, and distribution of high performance and reliable Solid State Drives (SSDs) and premium computer components, such as RAM modules.

Shares Outstanding:	51.98M
Float:	45.72M
% Held by Insiders:	8.24%
% Held by Institutions:	74.30%
Shares Short (as of Jan 13, 2012):	22.24M
Short % of Float (as of Jan 13, 2012):	45.90%
Short % of Float (as of Feb 9, 2012):	47.33%

OCZ just recently completed a common stock offering of 12,000,000 primary shares at a price of $9.00 per share. The underwriters have a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,800,000 shares of common stock to cover over-allotments of shares, if any. OCZ will receive roughly $101 million in net proceeds from the offering.

If the underwriters exercise their over-allotment option, then OCZ will receive almost $116 million.

Short interest has increased month over month, in part because of this recent stock offering, as shorts consider this stock dilution Also, this time of year, the entire PC chip and drive sector companies tend to slow down. However, OCZ falls under the cyclical stock category, and economic growth has picked up a bit lately.

The chart above is showing a nice triangle wedge mid term trend pattern and The MACD remains bullish. The short term indicators seem to suggest a pull back to $8.25.

Will many of the shorts cover in fear of being squeezed, or will they continue to hold their shorts? The 52 week high is $10.94, and the stock is trading closer to this level lately. My opinion is that OCZ is a good short term short candidate, then a swing trade to over $10, possibly even a new 52 week high within 6 weeks.

Metabolix Incorporated (MBLX) Current pps: $2.94

The company develops and commercializes technologies for the production of polymers and chemicals in plants and in microbes.

Avg Vol (3 month):	509,873
Avg Vol (10 day):	368,350
Shares Outstanding:	34.11M
Float:	29.31M
% Held by Insiders:	22.60%
% Held by Institutions:	56.80%
Shares Short (as of Jan 13, 2012):	7.06M
Short % of Float (as of Jan 13, 2012):	32.50%
Short % of Float (as of Feb 9, 2012):	29.68%
Shares Short (prior month):	7.27M

Grain processor Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) said it will end a commercial alliance with Metabolix next month. Archer has been suffering lately as a company, with their latest earnings missing the target due to a maze of charges and items. Oilseeds profitability was down significantly (margin of 3.4% versus 5.3%) on weak crush margins.

The above chart certainly reflects the end of the Metabolix relationship with ADM. The stock took a major beating in Mid January as we can clearly see. The MACD went way below the zero line, just brutal! However, the MACD signal is beginning to curve back up. The chart shows a small engulfing pattern, indicating a continued upward move.

This trade may very well be good for a move back to at least $4 a share, as I expect the heavy short interest to lighten up quite a bit as the stock slowly rebounds. I consider Metabolix a good short to mid term buy. I would caution that The Metabolix long term channel trend has been a down trend. I do not consider Metabolix a good long term buy and hold at this time.

Transcept Pharma (TSPT) Current pps: $8.15

Transcept Pharma is a specialty pharmaceutical company focusing on the development and commercialization of proprietary products that address therapeutic needs in the field of neuroscience.

Avg Vol (3 month):	337,065
Avg Vol (10 day):	96,313
Shares Outstanding:	13.54M
Float:	6.56M
% Held by Insiders:	41.58%
% Held by Institutions:	27.80%
Shares Short (as of Jan 13, 2012):	2.14M
Short % of Float (as of Jan 13, 2012):	27.50%
Short % of Float (as of Feb 9, 2012):	28.63%
Shares Short (prior month):	2.10M

This is just the kind of stock that is foolish to short. The float is very small coming in at a little over 6.5 million shares. Intermezzo, Transcept's new drug for insomnia, could be a very big commercial success.

In Nov 2011, The FDA approved Intermezzo, making it the first approved treatment for patients afflicted by middle-of-the-night waking followed by difficulty returning to sleep. Transcept's marketing partner Purdue Pharmaceuticals will launch the product in mid-2012.

This stock rates on my list as a 10 out of 10 in terms of a possible massive short squeeze. Because of the low float, a double from the current stock is price is more than possible. Transcept is a strong buy in my opinion.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational and entertainment use only and should not be construed as professional investment advice. Always do you own complete due diligence before buying and selling any stock.

Bank of Canada Holds Interest Rates at 1%

By Scott Boyd

As expected, the Bank of Canada announced this morning that it was maintaining the current 1 percent overnight target rate. In the statement, the Bank noted that the global recovery is proceeding "broadly as expected" and the Bank feels that underlying inflation remains "subdued."

The announcement does note that commodity prices have eased slightly but are still expected to remain at elevated levels. The higher prices and continued demand for Canada’s resource exports from the emerging economies imply a threat for inflation in the longer term and the bank will continue to watch for an increase in inflationary pressures on the economy.

The bank also noted that expansion in Canada continues to unfold as expected. Growth for the first quarter came in at 3.9 percent but this is expected to ease later in the year.

"While underlying inflation is relatively subdued, the bank expects that high energy prices and changes in provincial indirect taxes will keep total CPI inflation above 3 per cent in the short term. Total CPI inflation is expected to converge with core inflation at 2 per cent by the middle of 2012 as excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, labour compensation growth stays modest, productivity recovers and inflation expectations remain well-anchored."

Also See

• Profiting From Stock Buybacks
• Paying More for Dividends
• The Top 100 Mutual Funds

To hear debt-weary politicians in the U.S. and Europe tell it, the budget ax is being sharpened, and dramatic cuts in public spending are on the way -- all of which could be bad news for companies involved in projects to build or operate roads, ports and bridges, among other things.

But analysts say that's not quite the case. Indeed, dig deeper into the global to-do list and it looks like, rather than using an ax, political leaders will need to keep reaching for picks and shovels. Just to keep pace with the world's growing population, governments and the private sector will have to spend at least $53 trillion on transportation, telecom, energy and other infrastructure projects by 2030, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a policy forum whose members include 34 nations. That means spending about what Germany generates in economic activity every year for 18 years, on everything from power grids in Latin America and China to natural gas pipelines in the U.S. For the companies involved in these projects, that spells long-term opportunity, says Michael Avery, who has devoted about a quarter of the $25 billion Ivy Asset Strategy fund he comanages to infrastructure-related stocks. Avery is hardly alone. The number of funds specializing in infrastructure-related plays has doubled since 2008, to 35 -- with investors pouring about $700 million into the group over the past year.

Smart Picks

The following companies are poised to benefit from infrastructure projects around the globe, experts say.

Enbridge (ENB)

The Canadian firm operates gas and oil pipelines in the U.S. and Canada, and should benefit from both oil discoveries in North Dakota and the natural gas boom nationwide, says Gary Anderson, comanager of the Scout International fund. Enbridge has also boosted its dividend for 15 consecutive years.

Hutchison Whampoa (HUWHY)

The Hong Kong conglomerate operates ports in 26 countries, including deep-sea, coastal and river ports in China and stands to benefit as China's western provinces develop. The shares are cheap as well, trading at two-thirds the value of its assets, says Michael Avery, comanager of the Ivy Asset Strategy fund.

Cemig (CIG)

Brazilian utility Companhia Energ tica de Minas Gerais, or Cemig, trades at eight times earnings about half what comparable but slower-growing U.S.-based utilities trade

at, says Forward Global Infrastructure fund manager Aaron Visse. Plus, Brazil's government has promised an upgrade of its power grid.

ABB (ABB)

Executives of the Swiss company, whose power businesses benefit from both urbanization and the shift to more energy efficiency, told analysts they want ABB's profits to grow at twice the rate of global economic growth through 2015. That said, ABB's business is strongly affected by the ups and downs of the global economy, analysts say.

Abertis Infraestructuras (ABE.MC)

The Spanish firm manages toll roads, airports and telecom systems in 15 countries. Executives told analysts last fall they expected the company's profitability to improve in all of its businesses despite the economic downturn. In the interim, it has generated relatively steady cash, and it paid a special 13 percent dividend in 2011. Investors can get the stock, which trades on the Madrid exchange, through many brokers.

While the forecasts for infrastructure spending are not exactly new, the bridge and grid builders have recently become far more attractive investments, thanks to a couple of catalysts: privatization and price. Analysts say many European infrastructure stocks are trading at 15 to 25 percent below year-ago levels because some investors worry about their business prospects amid the latest financial crisis. But investor interest could spike over the next decade, as Europe sells state-owned assets -- a move that often follows sovereign-debt crises, says Bulent Gultekin, an associate finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School who has advised governments on such sales. While the pace of privatization may take a while and be subject to changing political winds, cash-strapped governments faced with the options of increasing taxes, slashing spending or selling public assets may opt to do more of the latter, Gultekin says.

Indeed, Greece is expected to sell stakes in some utilities, ports and rails by 2015, and Spain has talked about selling some of its stakes in airports in Barcelona and Madrid. Over the next 12 to 18 months, Europe could privatize 10 billion euro ($13.3 billion) worth of assets, and potentially five times that over the next four years, says Andrew Maple-Brown, comanager of the $21 million Delaware Macquarie Global Infrastructure fund.

To be sure, these stocks could be volatile if Europe's financial troubles curtail projects or China's slowdown is worse than expected. But fund managers say many of the firms, especially those that operate projects, like Spain's Abertis Infraestructuras, are well-diversified and generate a growing share of their business from emerging markets that aren't facing the same fiscal pressures. Says Joshua Duitz, who runs the Alpine Global Infrastructure fund, "These are the stocks I want to own in general -- but especially through an economic crisis."