Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) is scheduled to report first quarter 2014 sales and earnings before the opening of financial markets on Wednesday, May 14, 2014. Management will conduct a webcast with financial analysts and investors that day at 10:00 am ET.
Wall Street anticipates that the fuel cell maker will lose -$0.05 per share for the quarter, which is better than last year's loss of -$0.14. iStock expects PLUG to hit Wall Street's consensus number, the iEstimate is -$0.05, too.
Sales, unlike earnings, are expected to weaken, slipping an uncomfortable 17% year-over-year (YoY). PLUG's consensus revenue estimate for Q1 is $5.35 million, more than a million less than last year's $6.44 million – that ain't the way the number is supposed to be headed.
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Plug Power Inc. (Plug Power), is a provider of alternative energy technology focused on the design, development, commercialization and manufacture of fuel cell systems for the industrial off-road (forklift or material handling) market. The Company is focused on proton exchange membrane (PEM), fuel cell and fuel processing technologies and fuel cell/battery hybrid technologies, from which multiple products are available.
In a highly unusual move, PLUG management provided full-year, 2014 guidance on the ever of earnings. iStock cannot recall that happening before. The company shared their 2014 outlook for more than 3,000 unit shipments to 20 manufacturers' facilities or distribution centers. Management says to expect 25% gross margin and 5% EBITDAS in 2014, with Q2 and Q3 EBITDAS expected to be break even.
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The news has PLUG up more than 7% as we type. But we aren't sure if the pre-emptive move is meant to fire up investors and build momentum or offset a less than expected report Wednesday morning.
Based on PLUG's recent quarterly checkups, option B seems like the more likely outcome. EPS have missed the mark, usually badly, eight of the last 12 quarters by an average of -42.17% less than forecasted with a range of -12.5% to -92.59% below consensus. PLUG posted bearish surprises the last two times out and seven of the last nine quarters. Now you know why we think the full-year guidance might be well timed.
As you might expect, PLUG's earnings-driven price-sensitivity has been to the downside. The stock price went in reverse nine of the last 12 announcements, losing from 0-68% to -17.65%. The average loss was -9.28% with four backups of more than -13% in the days surrounding EPS news. Meanwhile, PLUG tacked on 1.81%, 4.76%, and 23.64% for the trifecta of green reactions in the last dozen.
Overall: Despite EPS estimates heading in the right direction, Plug Power Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PLUG) declining YoY sales and bearish surprise history make PLUG a risky earnings trade.
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