Monday, August 27, 2012

Sirius XM Shares Inch Higher Ahead Of Earnings Tomorrow

Sirius XM (SIRI) shares are trading higher ahead of the company’s Q1 earnings report, which is expected before the opening of trading tomorrow. The stock this morning set a new 52-week high.

In mid-April, the company said it had 171,441 net subscriber adds in Q1, increasing the total to 18.9 million. The company also said at the time that it expected to report “solid revenue growth and strong growth in pro forma adjusted income from operations” for the quarter.

Several analysts provided upbeat pre-earnings comments today:

  • Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Harrigan repeated his Hold rating, but lifted his target price to $1.25, from $1. He adds that a sustained recovery in U.S. auto sales to the 12 million unit annual rate would push his valuation estimate up to $1.50. He expects Q1 sales of $672.9 million with EBITDA of $138.2 million and “essentially break-even” EPS. He estimates ARPU at $11.06, and subscriber acquisition costs of $64.36.
  • Barrington Research analyst James Goss this morning repeated his Outperform rating on the shares; he also see a break-even quarter, with revenue of $682.2 million Goss writes that one potential catalyst for the stock could be inclusion in in stock indexes that had removed the shares as the stock price tumbled. Goss keeps his $1.25 target.
  • Lazard Capital analyst Barton Crockett repeated his Buy rating and $1.35 target. He sees revenue of $666 million, adjusted EBIRDA of $137 million and a profit of a penny a share. Crockett thinks the company will raise its full-year 2010 EBITDA guidance from the current $550 million to $600 million or higher.

SIRI is up 3 cents, or 2.8%, to $1.21; the stock earlier set a 52-week high at $1.22.

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