Bernstein Research’s Pierre Ferragu this morning reiterates an Outperform rating on shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) and a $22 price target, telling investors to look past concerns over last Friday’s debut of the Z10 smartphone at AT&T (T) in the U.S., arguing the overall roll-out of phones based on the new BB10 operating system will be positive.
BlackBerry stock is down 12 cents, or 0.9%, at $14.34.
For one thing, any disappointment with U.S. numbers probably have to do with the delay in the States — the Z10 was available at the beginning of February in the U.K. and Canada and other territories before coming to the U.S.
He offers the following chart suggesting it takes time for interest in the Z10 to pick up as it did in other countries:
“We don’t think this launch hiccup can derail BlackBerry 10′s timid but stable trajectory,” he writes:
We continue to model a decent launch for BB10, premised on the following three observations. Blackberry has drained channel inventories over the last 12 months and is in a very strong position to start shipping its new devices. Channel inventories came down by over 10m units over the last 12 months, which means most distributors and operators will take on significant initial orders. The Blackberry 10 launch is supported by most operators. In our recent discussions with operators we noted a very broad support, with operators willing to give the platform a good push. Initial Corporate demand should be strong. We recognise rapid share losses for blackberry in corporate, as “Bring Your Own Device” becomes the norm, but the brand still benefits from a significant user base equipped with aging smartphones.
Ferragu thinks BlackBerry could deliver profit this quarter, modeling 7 million total handset shipments, at an average price of $346 and revenue of $3.47 billion and EPS of 32 cents. The Street is modeling $3.34 billion and a 13-cent loss.
No comments:
Post a Comment