JP Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth this afternoon reiterates an overweight rating on shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) in what amounts to a direct response to the somewhat negative remarks this morning by Goldman Sachs’s Heather Bellini.�
Bellini had written that comScore’s estimate of 15% growth this quarter might mean Amazon’s sales would miss expectations if the company turned in only its average upside of 23 percentage points above the that overall growth figure.�
But Anmuth observes that Amazon’s outperformance relative to comScore data has been expanding this year, averaging 33 percentage points in the last three quarters.�
Anmuth believes that means Amazon could deliver at least 32 percentage�
points of growth above comScore’s figure, turning in 47% growth. That would put Amazon’s total sales growth ahead of the 44% that Bellini cited as the consensus that Amazon has to beat.�
Anmuth also points out the limits to comScore’s data set:
We note that comScore�s eCommerce data measures just US desktop-based eCommerce, which we believe makes it difficult to draw a conclusion on Amazon’s WW revenue growth. comScore�s eCommerce data excludes sales through mobile phones and tablets, which could represent ~5-10% of US eCommerce (and growing rapidly) in 4Q.
Amazon shares today are down 14 cents at $173.75.�
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