AAPL: Bernstein Sees FYQ2 Upside; iPhone Inventory ‘Wildcard’

Bernstein Research‘s Toni Sacconaghi this afternoon offers up his preview of Apple‘s (AAPL) fiscal Q2 report next Tuesday afternoon, projecting revenue and profit above consensus, but offering a somewhat lower iPhone estimates than some of the other views that have been expressed thus far.

Sacconaghi sees Apple reporting $37.6 billion in revenue and $10.44 per share in profit, ahead of the average estimate for $36.69 billion and $9.99 per share.

Sacconaghi is modeling just 30.5 million iPhone units shipped in the quarter, compared to some estimates of 31 to 34 million. He explains his view as follows:

We first back into the post-launch normalized daily run-rate for iPhone sales in FQ1, assuming that 50% of iPhone buyers from CQ309 bought an iPhone4S last quarter. Next, we assume lower-than-normal seasonality to account for potential pullforward of sales from FQ2 to FQ1 and subsequently adjust for the China launch of the iPhone4S in FQ2 as well as launch at new carriers including China Telecom (where 200K pre-orders were reported).

Sacconaghi cautions, however, that “iPhone inventory is a wildcard for FQ2,” with the possibility that if the company raised inventory by one week, it would produce 1.9 million additional units of the iPhone and another 44 cents per share in profit.

Writing that the iPad roll-out was “sooner” than he thought last quarter, and the international sales of the device expanded “broader and faster” than expected, he’s modeling 13.4 million units, which is higher than some estimates I’ve seen for 9.5 million to 12 million.

Sacconaghi is sticking with an estimate for 4.3 million Macs, even though “NPD data suggests sluggish year-over-year unit sales growth in the U.S. in the first two months of the quarter,” and there is “a tough comparison due to the MacBook refresh last March.” Some, including�Piper Jaffray‘s�Gene Munster, have expressed the view Macs could miss Street estimates for 4.5 million units.

And Sacconaghi is looking for a drop of 18% in iPod sales, to 7.4 million units.

Apple shares today closed down $14.46, or 2.5%, at $572.98. Dow Jones’s data experts say this was the worst five-day dollar drop in the stock’s history, with a decline of $32.25, which equals a 5.3% decline. The stock, moreover, lost 9.6% in the last two weeks of trading, or $56.5 billion in market capitalization.