Starbucks a Strong Long Play in Wake of Earnings-Driven Gains or Declines

Starbucks (SBUX) is set to report its Q2 results after the bell tonight, and Wall Street is looking for the coffee retailer to post a gain of $0.34 per share on revenue of $2.73 billion, according to Thomson Reuters.

SBUX just favors reversing its session-to-session performance over the last seven years. The stock has crossed narrower regular session closing levels following 16 of its last 29 after-hours earnings events. In the very near term, it has narrowed in two quarters and widened in two quarters, however.

Looking deeper into the data, SBUX has posted an earnings-related gain 15 times, extending that move 10 times, or 67% of the time. SBUX has posted an earnings-related decline 14 times, extending that move just three times, or 21% of the time.

On January 26, 2011, the stock fell 2.3% after a beat but disappointing guidance. Shares slipped just 0.1% during regular trading.

On Nov. 4, 2010, the stock rose 2.5% in after-hours trading after a Q4 earnings beat but guidance that straddles the Street view. Shares rose a stronger 3.7% the next day.

On July 21, 2010, the stock fell 2.6% in after-hours trading after meeting with earnings, beating with revenue and guiding in line. Shares fell 0.8% the next day.

On April 21, 2010, SBUX firmed 2.4% in after-hours trading on better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock jumped higher the following day, closing the April 22 regular session up 7.3%.

On Jan. 20, 2010, SBUX advanced 2.9% in after-hours action after beating Q1 estimates. The stock saw its gain moderate the following day, ending the Jan. 21 regular session with a slimmer 1.6% advance.

On Nov. 5, 2009, SBUX gained 3.5% in evening trading after beating quarterly expectations and hiking its earnings guidance. The stock firmed deeper to the plus-side the following day, ending the Nov. 6 regular session up 7.2%

On July 21, 2009, the stock gained 9.7% after a Q3 beat and FY guidance above the Street view. Shares jumped to 18.3% the following day.

On April 29, 2009, SBUX edged up 0.5% in after-hours trading after beating earnings expectations and meeting on sales. The stock added to its upside the following day, ending the April 30 regular session up 5.6%.

On Jan. 28, 2009, SBUX declined 2.3% in after-hours trading after missing earnings expectations and announcing store closures and job cuts. The stock cut its downside the following day, ending the Jan. 29 regular session at the flatline.

On Nov. 10, 2008, the stock fell 2.7% after meeting with revenue but disappointing with earnings. The decline was trimmed to 2% the next day.

On July 30, 2008, SBUX advanced 4.3% in after-hours trading after meeting on earnings and cutting its profit guidance. It lost most of that gain the next day, closing with a 0.1% gain on July 31.

On April 30, 2008, SBUX met quarterly expectations and edged down 0.6% in night trade. It reversed into the green the next day, rising 2.6% in the May 1 regular session.

On Jan. 30, 2008, SBUX shed 1.5% in evening trading after beating by a penny on EPS and posting in-line revenue. It added slightly to that downside the next day, losing 1.6% by the closing bell.

On Nov. 15, 2007, SBUX slid 8.3% in after-hours trading after beating quarterly estimates but issuing guidance that was in-line to lower than expectations. It cut that downside the following day, ending the Nov. 16 regular session down 3.8%.

On Aug. 1, 2007, the stock gained 1.4% in the evening hours after reporting largely in line. The stock fell 1% the next day.

On May 3, 2007, the stock managed a slim 0.4% evening gain after reporting above year-ago results and setting upbeat guidance. Shares ended down 2.9% the next day.

On Jan 31, 2007, the stock squeezed out a 0.8% gain after SBUX reported in line with EPS and beats with revenue. The stock reversed to close down 1.5% the next day.

On Nov. 16, 2006, SBUX shed 5.6% in night trading after meeting Q4 estimates and forecasting FY07 EPS to be in line to below Street estimates. The shares trimmed their losses the next day, ending the regular session down 5.1%.

On Aug. 2, 2006, SBUX fell 9.1% in the evening hours after reporting revenue in line but offering guidance that failed to inspire the Street. The loss narrowed just slightly the next day, when shares closed down 8%.

On the evening of May 3, 2006, shares fell 1.6% after the company reported ahead of the Street and guided higher. The mood had changed by the next day and the stock finished up 3.8%.

On Feb. 1, 2006, shares were up 6% in night trading after the company reported results and hiked its outlook for the full year. Shares gained 9.6% the next day.

On Nov. 17, 2005, shares nosed down 0.6% after SBUX reported Q4 EPS of $0.16 per share on revs of $1.7 billion, just edging out the FC mean for $0.15 cents on $1.67 billion in revs. EPS was $0.16 per share, a penny better than the Street view. But the company guided toward the low end of Street bets for the upcoming quarter. Shares slipped 0.7% the next day.

On July 27, 2005, SBUX closed the night session up 3.7% after the company beat Q3 estimates and issued in-line guidance. The shares moved higher the next day, ending regular hours up 4.6%.

On April 27, 2005 SBUX advanced 2.8% in after-hours trading after the company matched Street expectations and issued an outlook in-line with the then-current view. Buyers grew more vigorous on April 28, pushing the stock to a 4.6% rise by the regular session closing bell.

On Jan. 26, 2005, SBUX beat Q1 expectations and guided its FY05 in line with the Street view. The stock dipped 1.7% in that night's after-hours trading only to see more robust selling the following day, losing 4.1% by the Jan. 27 closing bell.

On Nov. 10, 2004, SBUX slipped 3.6% in night trading after topping revenue, reporting in-line EPS, and guiding lower. It managed to climb out of the red on Nov. 11, closing the regular session up 0.2% for its lone narrowing event in the last year.

On July 21, 2004, SBUX gained 1.6% in after-hours trading following better-than-expected EPS and in-line revenue. It rose a more aggressive 4.6% between the bells on July 22.

SBUX edged up 0.75% the night of April 21, 2004 after the company beat estimates and raised its outlook. The stock found healthier buy action the next day, rising 4.9% by the April 22 closing bell.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.