Clean Like The Bucs, Colts And Rams; Give Banks A Second Look

Heads are rolling and houses are getting cleaned in the National Football League with a spate of head coach and top brass firings this week.

The Glazer family, owners of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, booted third-year coach Raheem Morris on Monday and the St. Louis Rams sent Steve Spagnuolo walking on the heels of the Rams� limp 2-14 season.  Owner Jim Irsay sacked the father-and-son duo of Bill and Chris Polian from their respective jobs of vice president and general manager of the NFL�s other 2-14 stinkpot, the Peyton Manning-less Indianapolis Colts.

Let the decisiveness of the team owners in making changes at the top be a reminder that you do not have to tolerate a lack of performance in your portfolio any more than they do the failure of coaches and management to win games. Investments are kind of like coaches: you want to see guys who win out the season or at least show a few sparks of divine brilliance down the stretch.  You don�t want the Raheem Morrises that go out on a 10-game skid.

I�m tempted to listen to smart contrarian managers like David Dreman, who suggests getting into natural gas via exploration and production outfits like Anadarko, Devon Energy, Chesapeake.  Check out the Market Blaster video (below) for Dreman�s thesis on why now might be a good time to follow T. Boone Pickens into natural gas.

Looking at my own Forbes 401(k) to do a little firing, I�m taking aim at Fidelity Diversified International (FDVIX) for banishment and thinking about giving the pink slip to Contrafund (FCNTX).  Contrafund turned in a -0.12% loss for 2011, and has trailed all three ETFs that track U.S. stocks by market capitalization � small (IWM), midcap (MDY) and large (SPY) � since the market bottom on October 3.  Fidelity OTC has been relatively hapless and I�m nixing it, too.

As for FDVIX, it may be a little late to bail from international stocks.  Put me in a time machine and set it for late April of last year, please.  Even now, though, it appears from the chart of the UUP that the U.S. dollar is set firmly in an uptrend and a glance at the FXE reveals that the euro is tumbling.

Since Fidelity Diversified International is not currency hedged, I think I�ll bail and find a way to play a little gas, maybe with FSNGX, and stick with the smaller stocks in Extended Market Index�at least until next May when it will be time to sell and go away.

For the real gamblers who still feel stoked after Bank of America has tacked on 50% since its 52-week low, how about buying some puts on the FAZ or calls on Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley or the XLF? Financials should thrive when rates are low and growth is accelerating.

Loving those small stocks